The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change - The Response Of The Nations

United States

Many industrialized countries have committed themselves to stabilizing or reducing CO₂ emissions. President George H. W. Bush's administration (1989–1993) opposed precise deadlines for CO₂ limits, arguing that the extent of the problem was too uncertain to justify painful economic measures. However, in 1989 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established and later authorized by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990.

When President Bill Clinton took office in 1993, he joined the European Community in calling for overall emissions to be stabilized at 1990 levels by 2000, but this goal was not met. In October 1993 the United States, under the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change, released The Climate Change Action Plan detailing the nation's response to climate change. FIGURE 2.12
Nitrous oxide emissions by source, 1990–2002 The plan included a set of measures by both government and the private sector to lay a foundation for the nation's participation in world response to the climate challenge.

The measures called for under the Action Plan would reduce emissions for all greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2000. However, since the time the projections were prepared and the Action Plan was published, the economy grew at a more robust rate than anticipated, which led to increased emissions. Furthermore, the U.S. Congress did not provide full funding for the actions contained in the plan.

At the time, the U.S. global warming program was coordinated through the Committee on Earth and Environmental Science within the Office of Science and Technology Policy of the White House. Some eighteen federal agencies were represented in the multiyear, multibillion-dollar research program, nine of which received the bulk of funding. NASA received 66 percent, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) was provided 10 percent. Rounding out the top nine were the Smithsonian Institution and a half dozen federal agencies, including the EPA and the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Energy, and the Interior.

Even though the United States had a comprehensive global warming program in place, Congress was reluctant to take steps to reduce emissions. However, the Clinton administration implemented some policies that did not require congressional approval. In 1999 President Clinton made a number of executive orders and began several new initiatives. These included the Climate Change Technology initiative, a five-year, $6.3 billion program of tax incentives and investments focusing on improving energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies; the Wind Powering America initiative, seeking to supply 5 percent of the nation's electricity through wind technology by 2020; and a Brightfields initiative, aimed at using former industrial sites contaminated with toxic waste for producing pollution-free solar energy. Executive Order 13134 aimed at coordinating federal efforts to develop technology to grow the economy while simultaneously solving some environmental problems, such as converting crops, trees, and other "biomass" into fuels, power, and products. Executive Order 13123 required all federal government agencies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2010. The federal government was the largest energy consumer in the nation, and the Clinton administration wanted it to serve as an example to the nation's businesses and consumers, who ultimately could reap benefits from energy improvements. President Clinton also established the U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative to study areas of uncertainty about global climate change science and identify priorities for public investments.

After President George W. Bush took office in 2001 he established a new cabinet-level management structure FIGURE 2.13
Sources of nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from agricultural soils to oversee government investments in climate change science and technology. Both the U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative and the USGCRP were placed under the oversight of the interagency Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), which reports integrated research sponsored by thirteen federal agencies. The CCSP is overseen by the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Council on Environmental Quality, and the Office of Management and Budget.

In June 2002 the George W. Bush administration released the third National Communication of the United States of America under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The U.S. Climate Action Report—2002 acknowledges that greenhouse gases resulting from human activities are accumulating in the atmosphere and that they are causing air and ocean temperatures to increase. However, it does not rule out the still unknown role of natural variability in global warming. In addition, the report reiterates that the administration plans to reduce the nation's greenhouse gas intensity by 18 percent over the following decade through a combination of existing regulations and voluntary, incentive-based measures. In November of that year the CCSP publication Our Changing Planet was issued as a supplement to the President's 2003 fiscal year budget. According to this document the administration's overall approach to climate change is "to achieve both environmental protection and a healthy economy, based on the best possible information for action."

In July 2003 the CCSP published two major reports: Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and The U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan. Together these documents outline the approach the CCSP plans to take to achieve its five main scientific goals:

• Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change
• Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems
• Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and related systems may change in the future
• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes
• Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change

The CCSP illustrates that climate change is a complex issue and involves a wide range of natural and anthropogenic (human-related) factors as shown in Figure 2.14.

Other Nations

Saudi Arabia and several other oil producing nations have resisted the setting of new targets for emissions because they fear this will reduce the demand for their oil. On the other hand, many environmentalists believe that reducing pollution depends on increasing energy efficiency and gradually switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy, an idea most industrialized countries have been slow to embrace.

China's ongoing economic revolution may lead that nation to become the world's largest contributor to global warming. China is burning increasing amounts of coal and is expected to become the single greatest creator of greenhouse gases in the coming decades. China's leaders indicate that they are well aware that coal burning causes pollution, but the Chinese government has made it clear that it will not sacrifice development for the environment. Chinese leaders argue that it is unfair to impose constraints on China or developing nations when Western countries have been willfully polluting the environment for more than a century, pointing out that China has only recently become a significant offender. Critics of China's argument note that China itself would be harmed by global warming, which could dry up crops, shrink water supplies, and cause the flooding of major coastal cities.

In 1992 representatives of thirty-seven island nations, which make up the Alliance of Small Island States, drafted an agreement to present to the Earth Summit. These nations, including Cyprus and Malta (in the Mediterranean) and the Caribbean islands, fear their existence is threatened by the rising sea level. They claim they will be the first victims of global warming, becoming a whole new category of environmental refugees. Tourist beaches are shrinking, dikes are being erected to protect reclaimed land, and some islands have already been evacuated. Since they are so vulnerable, these nations feel an urgency not felt by the Northern industrial countries and the larger developing nations. Nonetheless, larger countries may have similar incentives to stabilize sea levels. A three-foot rise in ocean levels would render an estimated 72 million people homeless in China, 11 million in Bangladesh, and 8 million in Egypt.

A Global Warming Treaty

In 1992, 143 countries approved a UN global warming treaty in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, that committed them to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. Many environmentalists criticized the treaty as too weak because it did not establish specific targets that governments must meet. The treaty did not include specific targets mainly because then-President George H. W. Bush, representing the United States, refused to accept them. President Clinton signed the treaty in 1994, although adherence to the environmental measures has largely been disappointing even among those nations that originally signed.

Supporters of a global warming strategy advocate limiting the emissions of the four main greenhouse gases and recommend a gradual transition away from fossil fuels, which currently provide about three-quarters of the world's energy.

In 1995, 120 parties to the global warming treaty met in Berlin in what is known as the Berlin Mandate to determine the success of existing treaties and to embark on discussions of emissions after 2000. Differences persisted along North-South lines, with developing countries making essentially a moral argument for requiring more of the richer nations. They pointed out that the richer nations are responsible for most of the pollution. The Berlin talks FIGURE 2.14
Major factors affecting climate and climate change essentially failed to endorse binding timetables for reductions in greenhouse gases.

The Kyoto Protocol—Rich versus Poor Countries

In December 1997 delegates from 166 countries met in Kyoto, Japan, at the UN Climate Change Conference to negotiate actions to reduce global warming. The task was more complicated and difficult than was envisioned in 1995, when parties to the 1992 Rio de Janeiro treaty on climate change decided that stronger action was needed. What was originally envisioned as a matter of deciding on a reduction target and a timetable for industrialized countries once again broadened into a contentious debate between developed and developing countries as to the proper role of each.

Some developed nations, including the United States, wanted to require all countries to reduce their emissions. However, developing countries felt the industrialized nations had caused, and were still causing, most global warming and therefore should bear the brunt of economic sacrifices to clean up the environment. Even within the industrialized community, the European Union criticized the United States for lagging behind in reducing emissions, as it had previously pledged.

Different targets for different countries, tailored to their economic and social circumstances, emerged as a possible way to get around the impasse between nations. The final compromise, signed by the parties, was for the industrialized nations to cut emissions by an average of 5.2 percent between 2008 and 2012. The treaty also set up an emission trading system that would allow countries that exceed their pollution limits to purchase on an open market "credits" from countries that pollute less. This provision was viewed as necessary to U.S. congressional approval. The developing nations feared that such a trading system would allow rich countries to buy their way

TABLE 2.3
Public understanding of the global warming issue, 2004
NEXT, THINKING ABOUT THE ISSUE OF GLOBAL WARMING, SOMETIMES CALLED THE "GREENHOUSE EFFECT," HOW WELL DO YOU FEEL YOU UNDERSTAND THIS ISSUE—WOULD YOU SAY VERY WELL, FAIRLY WELL, NOT VERY WELL, OR NOT AT ALL?

into compliance rather than make unpopular emissions cuts. Enforcement mechanisms were not agreed to, nor did developing nations commit to binding participation.

The U.S. Congress never ratified the treaty. In March 2001 President George W. Bush indicated that the United States would pull out of the treaty because it would cost an estimated $400 billion and 4.9 million jobs to comply. The treaty was ratified by the European Union and Japan in June 2002.