The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change - Public Opinion About Global Warming

In March 2004 the Gallup Organization conducted its annual poll on topics related to the environment. Participants were asked several questions about global warming and the Kyoto Protocol.

As shown in Table 2.3 more than a quarter of those asked admitted they did not have a good understanding of the global warming issue. Half of those asked said they understood the issue fairly well. Another 18 percent felt they had a very good understanding about the issue. In 1992, 22 percent of people responded that they did not understand the issue at all, but this had dropped to 6 percent in 2004.

Table 2.4 shows how poll participants view the timeliness of global warming. Just over half (51 percent) of those asked in 2004 believe that global warming has already begun, while 17 percent feel that global warming will occur within the next few years or within their lifetimes. Another 18 percent consider global warming a problem for the distant future, and 11 percent believe that it will never happen at all. This breakdown of opinions on the subject has remained fairly constant through the years.

Concern about global warming has wavered over the years but is generally lower in 2004 than in previous years. (See Table 2.5). In a poll from March 2004, 26 percent of respondents expressed a great deal of concern about global warming and 25 percent expressed a fair amount of concern. Together these opinions represent just over half of all the people polled. In 1989 nearly two-thirds of those asked felt a great deal or fair amount of concern about this issue. In 2000 nearly three-quarters did. Overall concern does appear to be on a downward trend. These results coincide with the data presented in Table 2.6. Poll participants were asked to rate their views about the seriousness of global warming based on the information they have seen in the media. In 2004 more people (38 percent) considered the seriousness to be exaggerated by the media rather than reported correctly (25 percent) or underestimated (33 percent).

In 2004 Gallup asked people about the response of the Bush administration to global warming. Pollsters pointed out that a group of "prominent" scientists have criticized the administration's approach to dealing with global warming, claiming that scientific evidence has been ignored and distorted. Only 8 percent of the poll respondents indicated they had heard a great deal about this criticism. Another 26 percent had heard a moderate amount of information about it. The largest fraction (40 percent) claimed they knew very little about the criticism and 26 percent knew nothing at all about it. When asked which side they tended to believe in this dispute (the Bush administration or the scientists) a majority (59 percent) sided with the scientists, while 32 percent sided with the Bush administration.

Despite the administration's well-publicized opposition to the Kyoto treaty, Gallup's 2004 poll shows that more people support the treaty than oppose it. Figure 2.15 illustrates that 42 percent of poll respondents indicated that the United States should agree to abide by the provisions of the treaty, compared to 22 percent who disagreed. A sizable percentage of those asked (36 percent) had no opinion on the matter.

People participating in Gallup's 2003 environment poll were asked whether increases in the Earth's temperature over the last century were due more to natural causes or to pollution associated with human activities. As shown in Figure 2.16, human activities received nearly twice the blame than did natural causes. This breakdown is identical to that reported by Gallup when the same question was asked in 2001.

TABLE 2.4
Public opinion about when the effects of global warming will begin, 2004
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS REFLECTS YOUR VIEW OF WHEN THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING WILL BEGIN TO HAPPEN—[ROTATED: THEY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO HAPPEN, THEY WILL START HAPPENING WITHIN A FEW YEARS, THEY WILL START HAPPENING WITHIN YOUR LIFETIME, THEY WILL NOT HAPPEN WITHIN YOUR LIFETIME, BUT THEY WILL AFFECT FUTURE GENERATIONS, (OR) THEY WILL NEVER HAPPEN]?

	Already begun %	Within a few years %	Within your lifetime %	Not within lifetime, but affect future %	Will never happen %	No opinion %
2004 Mar 8–11	51	5	12	18	11	3
2003 Mar 3–5	51	6	12	17	10	4
2002 Mar 4–7	53	5	13	17	9	3
2001 Mar 5–7	54	4	13	18	7	4
1997 Nov 6–9	48	3	14	19	9	7
SOURCE: "Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen—[ROTATED: they have already begun to happen, they will start happening within a few years, they will start happening within your lifetime, they will not happen within your lifetime, but they will affect future generations, (or) they will never happen]?," in Poll Topics and Trends: Environment, The Gallup Organization, Princeton, NJ, March 17, 2004 [Online] www.gallup.com [accessed March 30, 2004]

TABLE 2.5
Public concern about global warming, 2004
PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU PERSONALLY WORRY ABOUT THIS PROBLEM A GREAT DEAL, A FAIR AMOUNT, ONLY A LITTLE, OR NOT AT ALL. THE "GREENHOUSE EFFECT" OR GLOBAL WARMING?

	Great deal %	Fair amount %	Only a little %	Not at all %	No opinion %
2004 Mar 8–11	26	25	28	19	2
2003 Mar 3–5	28	30	23	17	2
2002 Mar 4–7	29	29	23	17	2
2001 Mar 5–7	33	30	22	13	2
2000 Apr 3–9	40	32	15	12	1
1999 Apr 13–14	34	34	18	12	2
1999 Mar 12–14	28	31	23	16	2
1997 Oct 27–28	24	26	29	17	4
1991 Apr 11–14	35	27	22	12	5
1990 Apr 5–8	30	27	20	16	6
1989 May 4–7	35	28	18	12	7
SOURCE: "Please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all. The 'greenhouse effect' or global warming?," in Poll Topics and Trends: Environment, The Gallup Organization, Princeton, NJ, March 17, 2004 [Online] www.gallup.com [accessed March 30, 2004]

TABLE 2.6
Public opinion about the seriousness of global warming, 2004
THINKING ABOUT WHAT IS SAID IN THE NEWS, IN YOUR VIEW IS THE SERIOUSNESS OF GLOBAL WARMING—[ROTATED: GENERALLY EXAGGERATED, GENERALLY CORRECT, OR IS IT GENERALLY UNDERESTIMATED]?

Generally exaggerated %	Generally correct %	Generally underestimated %	Generally exaggerated %	No opinion %
2004 Mar 8–11	38	25	33	4
2003 Mar 3–5	33	29	33	5
2002 Mar 4–7	31	32	32	5
2001 Mar 5–7	30	34	32	4
1997 Nov 6–9*	31	34	27	8
*Based on half sample.
SOURCE: "Thinking about what is said in the news, in your view is the seriousness of global arming—[ROTATED: generally exaggerated, generally correct, or is it generally underestimated]?," in Poll Topics and Trends: Environment, The Gallup Organization, Princeton, NJ, March 17, 2004 [Online] www.gallup.com [accessed March 30, 2004]

FIGURE 2.15
Public opinion about the Kyoto agreement, March 2004

FIGURE 2.16
Public opinion regarding Earth's increasing temperature, March 2003