Child Sexual Abuse - Are Child Sexual Abuse Cases Declining?

According to CPS agencies across the United States, reported and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse have declined since 1992. Lisa Jones and David Finkelhor examined the possible factors responsible for the decline (The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, Washington, DC, January 2001).

Reported child sexual abuse cases declined 26% from an estimated 429,000 in 1991 to 315,400 in 1998. Substantiated, or confirmed, cases dropped from a peak of 149,800 in 1992 to 103,600 in 1998, a 31% decrease. (See Figure 6.1.) Between 1990 and 1992 just three states experienced a decrease in cases of substantiated child sexual abuse, compared to fourteen states reporting increases of 20% or more. The decreasing trend started between 1992 and 1994, with twenty-two states reporting a decline of 20% or more, followed by eighteen states reporting declines between 1994 and 1996. From 1996 to 1998 thirteen states showed decreases of 20% or more substantiated child sexual abuse cases. (See Figure 6.2.)

According to the authors, several factors may have influenced the decline in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse. (See Figure 6.3.) Since the 1990s the incidence of child sexual abuse may have been reduced by such factors as child victimization prevention programs, incarceration

FIGURE 6.1

of sexual offenders, treatment programs for sex offenders, as well as other variables that may cause child sexual abuse. These variables include female victimization by intimate partners and poverty. In other words, declining trends in these causal variables may play a role in the decreasing cases of child sexual abuse. Experts have shown a 30% to 60% overlap in the victimization of children and the victimization of their mothers. (See Figure 5.3 in Chapter 5.) Since 1993 a 21% decrease in female victimization by intimate partners has been reported. Poverty, down 18% between 1993 and 1998, while more often linked to cases of neglect and physical abuse, has also been found to contribute to child sexual abuse.

Jones and Finkelhor suggested that the drop in reports of child sexual abuse from 1991 to 1998 may be due to people's reluctance to report their suspicions because of widely publicized cases of false accusations. The public and mandated reporters, such as health care professionals, may also have learned accurate identification of the signs of abuse. In addition, the large numbers of sexual abuse cases that had surfaced as a result of increased vigilance starting in the 1980s may have been exhausted.

The investigation of child sexual abuse may have changed in scope. The authors noted that some CPS agencies may not be screening certain cases, such as sexual abuse by nonfamily members. Agencies with large case-loads may be investigating only cases they deem serious enough to warrant their time. These factors also affect the sexual abuse count. Changes in agency criteria of which investigated cases are substantiated may also affect the final count of substantiated cases.

Jones and Finkelhor pointed out that, if declining numbers of child sexual abuse resulted from intimidation

FIGURE 6.2

of child abuse reporters or changes in CPS investigative and substantiating policies, more research is needed. They suggested better training of professionals in identifying abuse. They also suggested exploring the cases that had not been investigated or substantiated and the changes in CPS procedures that caused the decline.

Researchers Revisit the Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

In January 2004 David Finkelhor and Lisa M. Jones revisited the factors they discussed in 2001, which they believed might have influenced the decline in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse since 1992 (Explanations for the Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, Washington, DC, January 2004). They examined, among other things, four states with large decreases in substantiated child sexual abuse, as well as extensive information for the 1990s. The four states were Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. The researchers found little or no evidence that the decline resulted from CPS agencies not investigating certain cases or the diminishing number of older cases. They could not determine whether or not fear of repercussions, such as lawsuits, had contributed to the decline in mandated reporting by physicians because the states had mixed results in physician reports.

FIGURE 6.3

Although Finkelhor and Jones found "no solid and convincing explanation" for the decline of child sexual abuse in the 1990s, they offered two pieces of evidence for some true decline in sexual abuse cases. One piece of evidence was the results of two self-reports of sexual assault (by nonfamily members) and sexual abuse (by family members). The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), an annual survey of one hundred thousand persons ages twelve to seventeen, found an overall 56% decline in self-reported sexual assault against juveniles between 1993 and 2000, with a 72% decline for sexual abuse. (See Figure 6.4). The Minnesota Student Survey, administered five times between 1989 and 2001, to students in grades six, nine, and twelve (more than 100,000 individuals), found a slight increase in the sexual abuse trend from 1989 to 1992, then a 22% decline for sexual abuse by family and nonfamily members. (See Figure 6.5.)

FIGURE 6.4

FIGURE 6.5