An Energy Overview - Future Trends In Energy Consumption, Production, And Prices

The EIA forecasts energy supply, demand, and prices every year in its Annual Energy Outlook, which is used by decision makers in the public and private sectors. The

FIGURE 1.11

EIA's latest projections, through 2025, are based on current U.S. laws, regulations, and economic conditions.

Total energy consumption in the United States is projected to increase from 97.7 to 136.5 quadrillion Btu between 2002 and 2025, an average annual increase of 1.5%. (See Table 1.6.) That projection becomes higher with high economic growth and/or low world oil prices, and lower with low economic growth and/or high world oil prices. In addition, energy consumption will increase in all end-use sectors to 2025.

The consumption of petroleum, natural gas, coal, and nonhydroelectric renewable energy sources is expected to rise significantly from 2002 to 2025 (see Figure 1.16), collectively increasing at an average annual rate of 1.8%. Total petroleum demand is projected to increase from 19.6 million barrels of oil per day in 2002 to 28.3 million barrels per day in 2025. Coal, natural gas, and renewable fuels consumption is projected to grow in part to meet the increased demand for electricity. Consumption of hydroelectric power and electricity generated from nuclear power will remain steady.

FIGURE 1.12

The rising consumption of petroleum by Americans is projected to lead to increasing petroleum imports by the United States through 2025. (See Figure 1.17.) Gross oil imports are projected to increase from 11.5 million barrels per day in 2002 to 20.7 million barrels per day in 2025. Most of the increase in imports will be crude oil because distillation capacity in the United States is expected to increase. Nevertheless, net imports of refined petroleum products are still expected to more than double over the next two decades.

In the period 2002–25 electricity prices in the United States are projected to decline slightly and then level out because of restructuring laws designed to increase competition in the industry, though restructuring has slowed. As shown in Figure 1.18, the electricity price projections in Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) are only slightly higher than the projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003). Figure 1.18 also shows that coal prices are expected to remain steady from 2002 to 2025, while crude oil and natural gas prices are expected to decrease from 2002 levels, then slowly rise through 2025.

FIGURE 1.13

FIGURE 1.14

FIGURE 1.15

TABLE 1.4

World primary energy production by source, 1970–2002
(Quadrillion btu)
Year	Coal	Natural gas1	Crude oil2	Natural gas plant liquids	Nuclear electric power3	Hydroelectric power3	Geothermal3 and other4	Total
1Dry production.
2Includes lease condensate.
3Net generation, i.e., gross generation less plant use.
4Includes net electricity generation from wood, waste, solar, and wind. Data for the United States also include other renewable energy.
R=Revised.
P=Preliminary.
Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Web Page: For related information, see http://www.eia.doe.gov/international.
Sources: 1971–1979—Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Database. 1980 forward—EIA, "International Energy Annual 2002" (May 2004)
SOURCE: "Table 11.1. World Primary Energy Production by Source, 1970–2002 (Quadrillion Btu)," in Annual Energy Review 2003, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, September 7, 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/aer.pdf (accessed September 28, 2004)
1970	62.96	37.09	97.09	3.61	0.90	12.15	1.59	215.39
1971	61.72	39.80	102.70	3.85	1.23	12.74	1.61	223.64
1972	63.65	42.08	108.52	4.09	1.66	13.31	1.68	234.99
1973	63.87	44.44	117.88	4.23	2.15	13.52	1.73	247.83
1974	63.79	45.35	117.82	4.22	2.86	14.84	1.76	250.64
1975	66.20	45.67	113.08	4.12	3.85	15.03	1.74	249.69
1976	67.32	47.62	122.92	4.24	4.52	15.08	1.97	263.67
1977	68.46	48.85	127.75	4.40	5.41	15.56	2.11	272.54
1978	69.56	50.26	128.51	4.55	6.42	16.80	2.32	278.41
1979	73.83	53.93	133.87	4.87	6.69	17.69	2.48	293.36
1980	R72.54	54.73	128.12	5.10	7.58	R18.04	2.95	R289.05
1981	R72.91	55.56	120.16	5.36	8.53	R18.41	R3.10	R284.02
1982	R75.55	55.49	114.51	5.34	9.51	R18.88	3.24	R282.53
1983	R75.58	56.12	113.97	5.34	10.72	R19.88	3.51	R285.13
1984	R79.73	61.78	116.86	5.71	R12.99	R20.38	3.64	R301.10
1985	R83.54	64.22	115.40	5.82	15.30	R20.62	3.67	R308.56
1986	R85.62	65.32	120.24	6.12	16.25	R21.08	R3.74	R318.37
1987	R87.41	68.48	121.16	6.32	17.64	R21.11	3.79	R325.92
1988	R89.25	71.80	125.93	6.63	19.23	R21.72	R3.93	R338.50
1989	R90.67	74.24	127.98	6.67	19.74	R21.77	4.29	R345.37
1990	R92.04	75.87	129.50	6.85	20.31	R22.54	R3.96	R351.08
1991	R87.32	76.69	128.77	7.13	21.13	R23.04	4.04	R348.13
1992	R86.74	76.90	129.13	7.38	21.23	R22.80	R4.32	R348.50
1993	R84.08	78.41	128.86	7.68	21.96	R24.10	R4.35	R349.43
1994	R86.14	79.18	130.46	7.85	22.36	R24.21	R4.55	R354.75
1995	R88.71	80.24	133.32	8.16	23.21	R25.43	R4.76	R363.84
1996	R88.55	83.94	136.64	8.31	24.05	R25.96	R4.88	R372.33
1997	R 92.41	83.89	140.52	8.51	23.82	R26.18	R4.92	R380.26
1998	R91.08	85.58	143.15	8.75	24.34	R26.22	R4.83	R383.94
1999	R90.61	R87.53	140.79	R9.01	25.08	R26.68	R5.07	R384.77
2000	R91.44	R91.03	146.50	R9.43	R25.52	R27.12	R5.24	R396.28
2001	R97.13	R93.38	R145.25	R10.07	R26.40	R26.02	R5.09	R403.33
2002P	97.56	95.20	142.86	10.55	26.85	26.59	5.52	405.12

TABLE 1.5

World primary energy consumption, 1981–2002
(Quadrillion btu)
Region/country	1981	1984	1987	1990	1993	1996	1999	2002
Notes: Data for the most recent year are preliminary. Total primary energy consumption reported in this table includes the consumption of petroleum, dry natural gas, coal, and net hydroelectric, nuclear, and geothermal, solar, wind, and wood and waste electric power. Total primary energy consumption for each country also includes net electricty imports (electricity imports minus electricity exports).
SOURCE: Adapted from "Table E1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu), 1980–2002," in International Energy Annual 2002, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, May 28, 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee1.xls (accessed November 8, 2004)
United States	76.368	76.726	79.189	84.606	87.578	94.225	96.774	97.649
North America	90.086	90.887	94.485	100.906	104.734	112.365	115.465	117.356
Antarctica	0.002	0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003
Antigua and Barbuda	0.005	0.005	0.006	0.006	0.006	0.007	0.007	0.007
Central & South America	11.500	12.108	13.462	14.527	16.132	18.527	20.305	21.186
Germany	NA	NA	NA	NA	14.065	14.353	14.117	14.269
Germany, East	3.560	3.518	3.827	3.358	NA	NA	NA	NA
Germany, West	10.769	10.914	11.405	11.460	NA	NA	NA	NA
Western Europe	56.716	57.685	62.021	64.053	64.654	68.201	70.320	72.265
Russia	NA	NA	NA	NA	31.964	27.374	26.772	27.536
Eastern Europe & Former U.S.S.R.	61.226	67.952	73.927	74.116	60.012	51.809	50.053	51.904
Middle East	6.183	7.880	9.704	11.084	12.733	14.610	16.601	18.867
Africa	6.996	8.327	8.834	9.296	9.953	10.921	11.600	12.750
China	17.192	20.453	24.755	27.001	31.317	36.081	36.995	43.177
Japan	15.127	15.651	16.201	18.273	19.397	21.252	21.657	21.965
Asia & Oceania	49.733	56.388	64.646	74.227	85.062	98.387	104.417	116.868
World total	282.440	301.227	327.080	348.208	353.281	374.820	388.761	411.196

FIGURE 1.16

FIGURE 1.17

TABLE 1.6

Summary of projected total energy supply and disposition, 2001–25
Energy and economic factors	2001	2002	2010	2015	2020	2025	Average annual change, 2002–2025
Notes: Quantities are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Some refinery inputs appear as petroleum product consumption. Other consumption includes net electricity imports, liquid hydrogen, and methanol.
SOURCE: "Table 1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition in the AEO2004 Reference Case: Summary, 2001–2025," in Annual Energy Outlook 2004, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, January 2004, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/forecasting/0383(2004).pdf (accessed November 16, 2004)
Primary energy production (quadrillion btu)
Petroleum	14.70	14.47	15.66	14.91	13.95	13.24	−0.4%
Dry natural gas	20.23	19.56	21.05	22.20	24.43	24.64	1.0%
Coal	23.97	22.70	25.25	26.14	27.92	31.10	1.4%
Nuclear power	8.03	8.15	8.29	8.48	8.53	8.53	0.2%
Renewable energy	5.25	5.84	7.18	7.84	8.45	9.00	1.9%
Other	0.53	1.13	0.88	0.79	0.81	0.84	−1.3%
Total	72.72	71.85	78.30	80.36	84.09	87.33	0.9%
Net imports (quadrillion btu)
Petroleum	23.29	22.56	28.13	33.20	37.25	41.69	2.7%
Natural gas	3.69	3.58	5.63	6.39	6.63	7.41	3.2%
Coal/other (-indicates export)	−0.67	−0.51	0.06	0.26	0.43	0.61	NA
Total	26.31	25.63	33.82	39.84	44.31	49.71	2.9%
Consumption (quadrillion btu)
Petroleum products	38.49	38.11	44.15	48.26	51.35	54.99	1.6%
Natural gas	23.05	23.37	26.82	28.74	31.21	32.21	1.4%
Coal	22.04	22.18	25.23	26.32	28.30	31.73	1.6%
Nuclear power	8.03	8.15	8.29	8.48	8.53	8.53	0.2%
Renewable energy	5.25	5.84	7.18	7.84	8.46	9.00	1.9%
Other	0.08	0.07	0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	−4.6%
Total	96.94	97.72	111.77	119.75	127.92	136.48	1.5%
Petroleum (million barrels per day)
Domestic crude production	5.74	5.62	5.93	5.53	4.95	4.61	−0.9%
Other domestic production	3.11	3.60	3.59	3.72	3.98	0.4%
Net imports	10.90	10.54	13.17	15.52	17.48	19.67	2.7%
Consumption	19.71	19.61	22.71	24.80	26.41	28.30	1.6%
Natural gas (trillion cubic feet)
Production	19.79	19.13	20.59	21.72	23.89	24.08	1.0%
Net imports	3.60	3.49	5.50	6.24	6.47	7.24	3.2%
Consumption	22.48	22.78	26.15	28.03	30.44	31.41	1.4%
Coal (million short tons)
Production	1,138	1,105	1,230	1,285	1,377	1,543	1.5%
Net imports	−29	−23	−2	6	14	23	NA
Consumption	1,060	1,066	1,229	1,291	1,391	1,567	1.7%
Prices (2002 dollars)
World oil price (dollars per barrel)	22.25	23.68	24.17	25.07	26.02	27.00	0.6%
Domestic natural gas at wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet)	4.14	2.95	3.40	4.19	4.28	4.40	1.8%
Domestic coal at minemouth (dollars per short ton)	17.79	17.90	16.88q	16.4	16.32	16.57	−0.3%
Average electricity price (cents per kilowatthour)	7.4	7.2	6.6	6.8	6.9	6.9	−0.2%
Economic indicators
Real gross domestic product (billion 1996 dollars)	9,215	9,440	12,190	14,101	16,188	18,520	3.0%
GDP chain-type price index (index, 1996 = 1.000)	1.094	1.107	1.301	1.503	1.774	2.121	2.9%
Real disposable personal income (billion 1996 dollars)	6,748	7,032	8,894	10,33	11,86	13,826	3.0%
Value of manufacturing shipments (billion 1996 dollars)	5,368	5,285	6,439	7,345	8,344	9,491	2.6%
Energy intensity (thousand btu per 1996 dollar of GDP)	10.53	10.36	9.17	8.50	7.91	7.37	−1.5%
Carbon dioxide emissions (million metric tons)	5,691.7	5,729.3	6,558.8	7,028.4	7,535.6	8,142.0	1.5%

FIGURE 1.18