Oil - Projected Oil Supply And Consumption

The EIA, in its Annual Energy Outlook 2004, projected that domestic crude oil production in the lower forty-eight states would increase from 4.6 million barrels per day in 2002 to 5.2 million barrels per day in 2008, then decline to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2025. The projected peak in production in 2008 is attributed to offshore production. The EIA projects that total offshore oil production will rise to 2.5 million barrels per day in 2008, then decline to 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Onshore lower forty-eight oil production is projected to decline, with 2025 values ranging from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Crude oil production in Alaska is expected to continue at about 900,000

TABLE 2.3

World crude oil production, 1960–2003
(Million barrels per day)
		Selected OPEC1 producers							Selected non-OPEC producers
Year	Persian Gulf nations2	Iran	Iraq	Kuwait3	Nigeria	Saudi Arabia3	United Arab Emirates	Venezuela	Total OPEC	Canada	China	Mexico	Norway	Former U.S.S.R.	Russia	United Kingdom	United States	Total non-OPEC4	World
1Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
2Persian Gulf Nations are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
3Includes about one-half of the production in the Neutral Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
4Ecuador, which withdrew from OPEC on December 31, 1992, and Gabon, which withdrew on December 31, 1994, are included in "Non-OPEC" for all years.
R= Revised.
P= Preliminary.
—=Not applicable.
(s)=Less than 0.005 million barrels per day.
Notes: Includes lease condensate, excludes natural gas plant liquids. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Web Page: For related information, see http://www.eia.doe.gov/international.
SOURCE: "Table 11.5. World Crude Oil Production, 1960–2003 (Million Barrels per Day)," in Annual Energy Review 2003, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, September 7, 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/aer.pdf (accessed September 28, 2004)
1960	5.27	1.07	0.97	1.69	0.02	1.31	0.00	2.85	8.70	0.52	0.10	0.27	0.00	2.91	—	(s)	7.04	12.29	20.99
1961	5.65	1.20	1.01	1.74	0.05	1.48	0.00	2.92	9.36	0.61	0.11	0.29	0.00	3.28	—	(s)	7.18	13.09	22.45
1962	6.19	1.33	1.01	1.96	0.07	1.64	0.01	3.20	10.51	0.67	0.12	0.31	0.00	3.67	—	(s)	7.33	13.84	24.35
1963	6.82	1.49	1.16	2.10	0.08	1.79	0.05	3.25	11.51	0.71	0.13	0.31	0.00	4.07	—	(s)	7.54	14.62	26.13
1964	7.61	1.71	1.26	2.30	0.12	1.90	0.19	3.39	12.98	0.75	0.18	0.32	0.00	4.60	—	(s)	7.61	15.20	28.18
1965	8.37	1.91	1.32	2.36	0.27	2.21	0.28	3.47	14.35	0.81	0.23	0.32	0.00	4.79	—	(s)	7.80	15.98	30.33
1966	9.32	2.13	1.39	2.48	0.42	2.60	0.36	3.37	15.77	0.88	0.29	0.33	0.00	5.23	—	(s)	8.30	17.19	32.96
1967	9.91	2.60	1.23	2.50	0.32	2.81	0.38	3.54	16.85	0.96	0.28	0.36	0.00	5.68	—	(s)	8.81	18.54	35.39
1968	10.91	2.84	1.50	2.61	0.14	3.04	0.50	3.60	18.79	1.19	0.30	0.39	0.00	6.08	—	(s)	9.10	19.84	38.63
1969	11.95	3.38	1.52	2.77	0.54	3.22	0.63	3.59	20.91	1.13	0.48	0.46	0.00	6.48	—	(s)	9.24	20.79	41.70
1970	13.39	3.83	1.55	2.99	1.08	3.80	0.78	3.71	23.30	1.26	0.60	0.49	0.00	6.99	—	(s)	9.64	22.59	45.89
1971	15.77	4.54	1.69	3.20	1.53	4.77	1.06	3.55	25.21	1.35	0.78	0.49	0.01	7.48	—	(s)	9.46	23.31	48.52
1972	17.54	5.02	1.47	3.28	1.82	6.02	1.20	3.22	26.89	1.53	0.90	0.51	0.03	7.89	—	(s)	9.44	24.25	51.14
1973	20.67	5.86	2.02	3.02	2.05	7.60	1.53	3.37	30.63	1.80	1.09	0.47	0.03	8.32	—	(s)	9.21	25.05	55.68
1974	21.28	6.02	1.97	2.55	2.26	8.48	1.68	2.98	30.35	1.55	1.32	0.57	0.04	8.91	—	(s)	8.77	25.37	55.72
1975	18.93	5.35	2.26	2.08	1.78	7.08	1.66	2.35	26.77	1.43	1.49	0.71	0.19	9.52	—	0.01	8.37	26.06	52.83
1976	21.51	5.88	2.42	2.15	2.07	8.58	1.94	2.29	30.33	1.31	1.67	0.83	0.28	10.06	—	0.25	8.13	27.01	57.34
1977	21.73	5.66	2.35	1.97	2.09	9.25	2.00	2.24	30.89	1.32	1.87	0.98	0.28	10.60	—	0.77	8.24	28.82	59.71
1978	20.61	5.24	2.56	2.13	1.90	8.30	1.83	2.17	29.46	1.32	2.08	1.21	0.36	11.11	—	1.08	8.71	30.70	60.16
1979	21.07	3.17	3.48	2.50	2.30	9.53	1.83	2.36	30.58	1.50	2.12	1.46	0.40	11.38	—	1.57	8.55	32.09	62.67
1980	17.96	1.66	2.51	1.66	2.06	9.90	1.71	2.17	26.61	1.44	2.11	1.94	0.53	11.71	—	1.62	8.60	32.99	59.60
1981	15.25	1.38	1.00	1.13	1.43	9.82	1.47	2.10	22.48	1.29	2.01	2.31	0.50	11.85	—	1.81	8.57	33.60	56.08
1982	12.16	2.21	1.01	0.82	1.30	6.48	1.25	1.90	18.78	1.27	2.05	2.75	0.52	11.91	—	2.07	8.65	34.70	53.48
1983	11.08	2.44	1.01	1.06	1.24	5.09	1.15	1.80	17.50	1.36	2.12	2.69	0.61	11.97	—	2.29	8.69	35.76	53.26
1984	10.78	2.17	1.21	1.16	1.39	4.66	1.15	1.80	17.44	1.44	2.30	2.78	0.70	11.86	—	2.48	8.88	37.05	54.49
1985	9.63	2.25	1.43	1.02	1.50	3.39	1.19	1.68	16.18	1.47	2.51	2.75	0.79	11.59	—	2.53	8.97	37.80	53.98
1986	11.70	2.04	1.69	1.42	1.47	4.87	1.33	1.79	18.28	1.47	2.62	2.44	0.87	11.90	—	2.54	8.68	37.95	56.23
1987	12.10	2.30	2.08	1.59	1.34	4.27	1.54	1.75	18.52	1.54	2.69	2.55	1.02	12.05	—	2.41	8.35	38.15	56.67
1988	13.46	2.24	2.69	1.49	1.45	5.09	1.57	1.90	20.32	1.62	2.73	2.51	1.16	12.05	—	2.23	8.14	38.42	58.74
1989	14.84	2.81	2.90	1.78	1.72	5.06	1.86	1.91	22.07	1.56	2.76	2.52	1.55	11.72	—	1.80	7.61	37.79	59.86
1990	15.28	3.09	2.04	1.18	1.81	6.41	2.12	2.14	23.20	1.55	2.77	2.55	1.70	10.98	—	1.82	7.36	37.37	60.57
1991	14.74	3.31	0.31	0.19	1.89	8.12	2.39	2.38	23.27	1.55	2.84	2.68	1.89	9.99	—	1.80	7.42	36.94	60.21
1992	15.97	3.43	0.43	1.06	1.94	8.33	2.27	2.37	24.40	1.61	2.85	2.67	2.23	—	7.63	1.83	7.17	35.81	60.21
1993	16.71	3.54	0.51	1.85	1.96	8.20	2.16	2.45	25.12	1.68	2.89	2.67	2.35	—	6.73	1.92	6.85	35.12	60.24
1994	16.96	3.62	0.55	2.03	1.93	8.12	2.19	2.59	25.51	1.75	2.94	2.69	2.52	—	6.14	2.37	6.66	35.48	60.99
1995	17.21	3.64	0.56	2.06	1.99	8.23	2.23	2.75	26.00	1.81	2.99	2.62	2.77	—	6.00	2.49	6.56	36.33	62.33
1996	17.37	3.69	0.58	2.06	2.00	8.22	2.28	2.94	26.46	1.84	3.13	2.86	3.10	—	5.85	2.57	6.46	37.25	63.71
1997	18.10	3.66	1.16	2.01	2.13	8.36	2.32	3.28	27.71	1.92	3.20	3.02	3.14	—	5.92	2.52	6.45	37.98	65.69
1998	19.34	3.63	2.15	2.09	2.15	8.39	2.35	3.17	28.77	1.98	3.20	3.07	3.02	—	5.85	2.62	6.25	38.15	66.92
1999	18.67	3.56	2.51	1.09	2.13	7.83	2.17	2.83	27.58	1.91	3.20	2.91	3.02	—	6.08	2.68	5.88	38.27	65.85
2000	19.89	3.70	2.57	2.08	2.17	8.40	2.37	3.16	29.26	1.98	3.25	3.01	3.20	—	6.48	2.28	5.82	39.08	68.34
2001	R19.10	3.72	R2.39	2.00	2.26	8.03	R2.21	R3.01	R28.34	2.03	3.30	3.16	3.12	—	R6.92	2.28	5.80	R39.60	R67.94
2002	17.79	3.44	2.02	1.89	2.12	7.63	2.08	R2.60	26.37	2.17	3.39	3.18	2.99	—	7.41	2.29	R5.75	R40.47	R66.84
2003P	19.26	3.78	1.31	2.18	2.24	8.85	2.35	2.34	28.01	2.31	3.41	3.37	2.85	—	8.18	2.09	5.74	41.49	69.50

FIGURE 2.9

barrels per day through 2016; it is then projected to decline to 510,000 barrels per day in 2025.

Due to declines in crude oil production after 2008 and in Alaska in 2016, the domestic petroleum supply is expected to decline after 2008 as well. However, consumption is projected to increase significantly from 2002 to 2025 (see Figure 2.11.) Thus, the EIA projects an increasing dependence on petroleum imports, with imports filling 70% of American petroleum needs in 2025, up from 53% in 2002. (See Figure 2.11.)