Oil - Projected Oil Supply And Consumption
day barrels million production
The EIA, in its Annual Energy Outlook 2004, projected that domestic crude oil production in the lower forty-eight states would increase from 4.6 million barrels per day in 2002 to 5.2 million barrels per day in 2008, then decline to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2025. The projected peak in production in 2008 is attributed to offshore production. The EIA projects that total offshore oil production will rise to 2.5 million barrels per day in 2008, then decline to 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Onshore lower forty-eight oil production is projected to decline, with 2025 values ranging from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Crude oil production in Alaska is expected to continue at about 900,000
TABLE 2.3
| World crude oil production, 1960–2003 | |||||||||||||||||||
| (Million barrels per day) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Selected OPEC1 producers | Selected non-OPEC producers | ||||||||||||||||||
| Year | Persian Gulf nations2 | Iran | Iraq | Kuwait3 | Nigeria | Saudi Arabia3 | United Arab Emirates | Venezuela | Total OPEC | Canada | China | Mexico | Norway | Former U.S.S.R. | Russia | United Kingdom | United States | Total non-OPEC4 | World |
| 1Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2Persian Gulf Nations are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. | |||||||||||||||||||
| 3Includes about one-half of the production in the Neutral Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. | |||||||||||||||||||
| 4Ecuador, which withdrew from OPEC on December 31, 1992, and Gabon, which withdrew on December 31, 1994, are included in "Non-OPEC" for all years. | |||||||||||||||||||
| R= Revised. | |||||||||||||||||||
| P= Preliminary. | |||||||||||||||||||
| —=Not applicable. | |||||||||||||||||||
| (s)=Less than 0.005 million barrels per day. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Notes: Includes lease condensate, excludes natural gas plant liquids. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Web Page: For related information, see http://www.eia.doe.gov/international. | |||||||||||||||||||
| SOURCE: "Table 11.5. World Crude Oil Production, 1960–2003 (Million Barrels per Day)," in Annual Energy Review 2003, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, September 7, 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/aer.pdf (accessed September 28, 2004) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1960 | 5.27 | 1.07 | 0.97 | 1.69 | 0.02 | 1.31 | 0.00 | 2.85 | 8.70 | 0.52 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 2.91 | — | (s) | 7.04 | 12.29 | 20.99 |
| 1961 | 5.65 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 1.74 | 0.05 | 1.48 | 0.00 | 2.92 | 9.36 | 0.61 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 3.28 | — | (s) | 7.18 | 13.09 | 22.45 |
| 1962 | 6.19 | 1.33 | 1.01 | 1.96 | 0.07 | 1.64 | 0.01 | 3.20 | 10.51 | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 3.67 | — | (s) | 7.33 | 13.84 | 24.35 |
| 1963 | 6.82 | 1.49 | 1.16 | 2.10 | 0.08 | 1.79 | 0.05 | 3.25 | 11.51 | 0.71 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 4.07 | — | (s) | 7.54 | 14.62 | 26.13 |
| 1964 | 7.61 | 1.71 | 1.26 | 2.30 | 0.12 | 1.90 | 0.19 | 3.39 | 12.98 | 0.75 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 4.60 | — | (s) | 7.61 | 15.20 | 28.18 |
| 1965 | 8.37 | 1.91 | 1.32 | 2.36 | 0.27 | 2.21 | 0.28 | 3.47 | 14.35 | 0.81 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 4.79 | — | (s) | 7.80 | 15.98 | 30.33 |
| 1966 | 9.32 | 2.13 | 1.39 | 2.48 | 0.42 | 2.60 | 0.36 | 3.37 | 15.77 | 0.88 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 5.23 | — | (s) | 8.30 | 17.19 | 32.96 |
| 1967 | 9.91 | 2.60 | 1.23 | 2.50 | 0.32 | 2.81 | 0.38 | 3.54 | 16.85 | 0.96 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 5.68 | — | (s) | 8.81 | 18.54 | 35.39 |
| 1968 | 10.91 | 2.84 | 1.50 | 2.61 | 0.14 | 3.04 | 0.50 | 3.60 | 18.79 | 1.19 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 6.08 | — | (s) | 9.10 | 19.84 | 38.63 |
| 1969 | 11.95 | 3.38 | 1.52 | 2.77 | 0.54 | 3.22 | 0.63 | 3.59 | 20.91 | 1.13 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 6.48 | — | (s) | 9.24 | 20.79 | 41.70 |
| 1970 | 13.39 | 3.83 | 1.55 | 2.99 | 1.08 | 3.80 | 0.78 | 3.71 | 23.30 | 1.26 | 0.60 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 6.99 | — | (s) | 9.64 | 22.59 | 45.89 |
| 1971 | 15.77 | 4.54 | 1.69 | 3.20 | 1.53 | 4.77 | 1.06 | 3.55 | 25.21 | 1.35 | 0.78 | 0.49 | 0.01 | 7.48 | — | (s) | 9.46 | 23.31 | 48.52 |
| 1972 | 17.54 | 5.02 | 1.47 | 3.28 | 1.82 | 6.02 | 1.20 | 3.22 | 26.89 | 1.53 | 0.90 | 0.51 | 0.03 | 7.89 | — | (s) | 9.44 | 24.25 | 51.14 |
| 1973 | 20.67 | 5.86 | 2.02 | 3.02 | 2.05 | 7.60 | 1.53 | 3.37 | 30.63 | 1.80 | 1.09 | 0.47 | 0.03 | 8.32 | — | (s) | 9.21 | 25.05 | 55.68 |
| 1974 | 21.28 | 6.02 | 1.97 | 2.55 | 2.26 | 8.48 | 1.68 | 2.98 | 30.35 | 1.55 | 1.32 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 8.91 | — | (s) | 8.77 | 25.37 | 55.72 |
| 1975 | 18.93 | 5.35 | 2.26 | 2.08 | 1.78 | 7.08 | 1.66 | 2.35 | 26.77 | 1.43 | 1.49 | 0.71 | 0.19 | 9.52 | — | 0.01 | 8.37 | 26.06 | 52.83 |
| 1976 | 21.51 | 5.88 | 2.42 | 2.15 | 2.07 | 8.58 | 1.94 | 2.29 | 30.33 | 1.31 | 1.67 | 0.83 | 0.28 | 10.06 | — | 0.25 | 8.13 | 27.01 | 57.34 |
| 1977 | 21.73 | 5.66 | 2.35 | 1.97 | 2.09 | 9.25 | 2.00 | 2.24 | 30.89 | 1.32 | 1.87 | 0.98 | 0.28 | 10.60 | — | 0.77 | 8.24 | 28.82 | 59.71 |
| 1978 | 20.61 | 5.24 | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.90 | 8.30 | 1.83 | 2.17 | 29.46 | 1.32 | 2.08 | 1.21 | 0.36 | 11.11 | — | 1.08 | 8.71 | 30.70 | 60.16 |
| 1979 | 21.07 | 3.17 | 3.48 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 9.53 | 1.83 | 2.36 | 30.58 | 1.50 | 2.12 | 1.46 | 0.40 | 11.38 | — | 1.57 | 8.55 | 32.09 | 62.67 |
| 1980 | 17.96 | 1.66 | 2.51 | 1.66 | 2.06 | 9.90 | 1.71 | 2.17 | 26.61 | 1.44 | 2.11 | 1.94 | 0.53 | 11.71 | — | 1.62 | 8.60 | 32.99 | 59.60 |
| 1981 | 15.25 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 1.43 | 9.82 | 1.47 | 2.10 | 22.48 | 1.29 | 2.01 | 2.31 | 0.50 | 11.85 | — | 1.81 | 8.57 | 33.60 | 56.08 |
| 1982 | 12.16 | 2.21 | 1.01 | 0.82 | 1.30 | 6.48 | 1.25 | 1.90 | 18.78 | 1.27 | 2.05 | 2.75 | 0.52 | 11.91 | — | 2.07 | 8.65 | 34.70 | 53.48 |
| 1983 | 11.08 | 2.44 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 1.24 | 5.09 | 1.15 | 1.80 | 17.50 | 1.36 | 2.12 | 2.69 | 0.61 | 11.97 | — | 2.29 | 8.69 | 35.76 | 53.26 |
| 1984 | 10.78 | 2.17 | 1.21 | 1.16 | 1.39 | 4.66 | 1.15 | 1.80 | 17.44 | 1.44 | 2.30 | 2.78 | 0.70 | 11.86 | — | 2.48 | 8.88 | 37.05 | 54.49 |
| 1985 | 9.63 | 2.25 | 1.43 | 1.02 | 1.50 | 3.39 | 1.19 | 1.68 | 16.18 | 1.47 | 2.51 | 2.75 | 0.79 | 11.59 | — | 2.53 | 8.97 | 37.80 | 53.98 |
| 1986 | 11.70 | 2.04 | 1.69 | 1.42 | 1.47 | 4.87 | 1.33 | 1.79 | 18.28 | 1.47 | 2.62 | 2.44 | 0.87 | 11.90 | — | 2.54 | 8.68 | 37.95 | 56.23 |
| 1987 | 12.10 | 2.30 | 2.08 | 1.59 | 1.34 | 4.27 | 1.54 | 1.75 | 18.52 | 1.54 | 2.69 | 2.55 | 1.02 | 12.05 | — | 2.41 | 8.35 | 38.15 | 56.67 |
| 1988 | 13.46 | 2.24 | 2.69 | 1.49 | 1.45 | 5.09 | 1.57 | 1.90 | 20.32 | 1.62 | 2.73 | 2.51 | 1.16 | 12.05 | — | 2.23 | 8.14 | 38.42 | 58.74 |
| 1989 | 14.84 | 2.81 | 2.90 | 1.78 | 1.72 | 5.06 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 22.07 | 1.56 | 2.76 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 11.72 | — | 1.80 | 7.61 | 37.79 | 59.86 |
| 1990 | 15.28 | 3.09 | 2.04 | 1.18 | 1.81 | 6.41 | 2.12 | 2.14 | 23.20 | 1.55 | 2.77 | 2.55 | 1.70 | 10.98 | — | 1.82 | 7.36 | 37.37 | 60.57 |
| 1991 | 14.74 | 3.31 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 1.89 | 8.12 | 2.39 | 2.38 | 23.27 | 1.55 | 2.84 | 2.68 | 1.89 | 9.99 | — | 1.80 | 7.42 | 36.94 | 60.21 |
| 1992 | 15.97 | 3.43 | 0.43 | 1.06 | 1.94 | 8.33 | 2.27 | 2.37 | 24.40 | 1.61 | 2.85 | 2.67 | 2.23 | — | 7.63 | 1.83 | 7.17 | 35.81 | 60.21 |
| 1993 | 16.71 | 3.54 | 0.51 | 1.85 | 1.96 | 8.20 | 2.16 | 2.45 | 25.12 | 1.68 | 2.89 | 2.67 | 2.35 | — | 6.73 | 1.92 | 6.85 | 35.12 | 60.24 |
| 1994 | 16.96 | 3.62 | 0.55 | 2.03 | 1.93 | 8.12 | 2.19 | 2.59 | 25.51 | 1.75 | 2.94 | 2.69 | 2.52 | — | 6.14 | 2.37 | 6.66 | 35.48 | 60.99 |
| 1995 | 17.21 | 3.64 | 0.56 | 2.06 | 1.99 | 8.23 | 2.23 | 2.75 | 26.00 | 1.81 | 2.99 | 2.62 | 2.77 | — | 6.00 | 2.49 | 6.56 | 36.33 | 62.33 |
| 1996 | 17.37 | 3.69 | 0.58 | 2.06 | 2.00 | 8.22 | 2.28 | 2.94 | 26.46 | 1.84 | 3.13 | 2.86 | 3.10 | — | 5.85 | 2.57 | 6.46 | 37.25 | 63.71 |
| 1997 | 18.10 | 3.66 | 1.16 | 2.01 | 2.13 | 8.36 | 2.32 | 3.28 | 27.71 | 1.92 | 3.20 | 3.02 | 3.14 | — | 5.92 | 2.52 | 6.45 | 37.98 | 65.69 |
| 1998 | 19.34 | 3.63 | 2.15 | 2.09 | 2.15 | 8.39 | 2.35 | 3.17 | 28.77 | 1.98 | 3.20 | 3.07 | 3.02 | — | 5.85 | 2.62 | 6.25 | 38.15 | 66.92 |
| 1999 | 18.67 | 3.56 | 2.51 | 1.09 | 2.13 | 7.83 | 2.17 | 2.83 | 27.58 | 1.91 | 3.20 | 2.91 | 3.02 | — | 6.08 | 2.68 | 5.88 | 38.27 | 65.85 |
| 2000 | 19.89 | 3.70 | 2.57 | 2.08 | 2.17 | 8.40 | 2.37 | 3.16 | 29.26 | 1.98 | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.20 | — | 6.48 | 2.28 | 5.82 | 39.08 | 68.34 |
| 2001 | R19.10 | 3.72 | R2.39 | 2.00 | 2.26 | 8.03 | R2.21 | R3.01 | R28.34 | 2.03 | 3.30 | 3.16 | 3.12 | — | R6.92 | 2.28 | 5.80 | R39.60 | R67.94 |
| 2002 | 17.79 | 3.44 | 2.02 | 1.89 | 2.12 | 7.63 | 2.08 | R2.60 | 26.37 | 2.17 | 3.39 | 3.18 | 2.99 | — | 7.41 | 2.29 | R5.75 | R40.47 | R66.84 |
| 2003P | 19.26 | 3.78 | 1.31 | 2.18 | 2.24 | 8.85 | 2.35 | 2.34 | 28.01 | 2.31 | 3.41 | 3.37 | 2.85 | — | 8.18 | 2.09 | 5.74 | 41.49 | 69.50 |
FIGURE 2.9
barrels per day through 2016; it is then projected to decline to 510,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Due to declines in crude oil production after 2008 and in Alaska in 2016, the domestic petroleum supply is expected to decline after 2008 as well. However, consumption is projected to increase significantly from 2002 to 2025 (see Figure 2.11.) Thus, the EIA projects an increasing dependence on petroleum imports, with imports filling 70% of American petroleum needs in 2025, up from 53% in 2002. (See Figure 2.11.)

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