Library Index

Oil - Projected Oil Supply And Consumption

day barrels million production

The EIA, in its Annual Energy Outlook 2004, projected that domestic crude oil production in the lower forty-eight states would increase from 4.6 million barrels per day in 2002 to 5.2 million barrels per day in 2008, then decline to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2025. The projected peak in production in 2008 is attributed to offshore production. The EIA projects that total offshore oil production will rise to 2.5 million barrels per day in 2008, then decline to 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Onshore lower forty-eight oil production is projected to decline, with 2025 values ranging from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Crude oil production in Alaska is expected to continue at about 900,000

TABLE 2.3

World crude oil production, 1960–2003
(Million barrels per day)
Selected OPEC1 producers Selected non-OPEC producers
Year Persian Gulf nations2 Iran Iraq Kuwait3 Nigeria Saudi Arabia3 United Arab Emirates Venezuela Total OPEC Canada China Mexico Norway Former U.S.S.R. Russia United Kingdom United States Total non-OPEC4 World
1Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
2Persian Gulf Nations are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
3Includes about one-half of the production in the Neutral Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
4Ecuador, which withdrew from OPEC on December 31, 1992, and Gabon, which withdrew on December 31, 1994, are included in "Non-OPEC" for all years.
R= Revised.
P= Preliminary.
—=Not applicable.
(s)=Less than 0.005 million barrels per day.
Notes: Includes lease condensate, excludes natural gas plant liquids. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
Web Page: For related information, see http://www.eia.doe.gov/international.
SOURCE: "Table 11.5. World Crude Oil Production, 1960–2003 (Million Barrels per Day)," in Annual Energy Review 2003, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, September 7, 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/aer.pdf (accessed September 28, 2004)
1960 5.27 1.07 0.97 1.69 0.02 1.31 0.00 2.85 8.70 0.52 0.10 0.27 0.00 2.91 — (s) 7.04 12.29 20.99
1961 5.65 1.20 1.01 1.74 0.05 1.48 0.00 2.92 9.36 0.61 0.11 0.29 0.00 3.28 — (s) 7.18 13.09 22.45
1962 6.19 1.33 1.01 1.96 0.07 1.64 0.01 3.20 10.51 0.67 0.12 0.31 0.00 3.67 — (s) 7.33 13.84 24.35
1963 6.82 1.49 1.16 2.10 0.08 1.79 0.05 3.25 11.51 0.71 0.13 0.31 0.00 4.07 — (s) 7.54 14.62 26.13
1964 7.61 1.71 1.26 2.30 0.12 1.90 0.19 3.39 12.98 0.75 0.18 0.32 0.00 4.60 — (s) 7.61 15.20 28.18
1965 8.37 1.91 1.32 2.36 0.27 2.21 0.28 3.47 14.35 0.81 0.23 0.32 0.00 4.79 — (s) 7.80 15.98 30.33
1966 9.32 2.13 1.39 2.48 0.42 2.60 0.36 3.37 15.77 0.88 0.29 0.33 0.00 5.23 — (s) 8.30 17.19 32.96
1967 9.91 2.60 1.23 2.50 0.32 2.81 0.38 3.54 16.85 0.96 0.28 0.36 0.00 5.68 — (s) 8.81 18.54 35.39
1968 10.91 2.84 1.50 2.61 0.14 3.04 0.50 3.60 18.79 1.19 0.30 0.39 0.00 6.08 — (s) 9.10 19.84 38.63
1969 11.95 3.38 1.52 2.77 0.54 3.22 0.63 3.59 20.91 1.13 0.48 0.46 0.00 6.48 — (s) 9.24 20.79 41.70
1970 13.39 3.83 1.55 2.99 1.08 3.80 0.78 3.71 23.30 1.26 0.60 0.49 0.00 6.99 — (s) 9.64 22.59 45.89
1971 15.77 4.54 1.69 3.20 1.53 4.77 1.06 3.55 25.21 1.35 0.78 0.49 0.01 7.48 — (s) 9.46 23.31 48.52
1972 17.54 5.02 1.47 3.28 1.82 6.02 1.20 3.22 26.89 1.53 0.90 0.51 0.03 7.89 — (s) 9.44 24.25 51.14
1973 20.67 5.86 2.02 3.02 2.05 7.60 1.53 3.37 30.63 1.80 1.09 0.47 0.03 8.32 — (s) 9.21 25.05 55.68
1974 21.28 6.02 1.97 2.55 2.26 8.48 1.68 2.98 30.35 1.55 1.32 0.57 0.04 8.91 — (s) 8.77 25.37 55.72
1975 18.93 5.35 2.26 2.08 1.78 7.08 1.66 2.35 26.77 1.43 1.49 0.71 0.19 9.52 — 0.01 8.37 26.06 52.83
1976 21.51 5.88 2.42 2.15 2.07 8.58 1.94 2.29 30.33 1.31 1.67 0.83 0.28 10.06 — 0.25 8.13 27.01 57.34
1977 21.73 5.66 2.35 1.97 2.09 9.25 2.00 2.24 30.89 1.32 1.87 0.98 0.28 10.60 — 0.77 8.24 28.82 59.71
1978 20.61 5.24 2.56 2.13 1.90 8.30 1.83 2.17 29.46 1.32 2.08 1.21 0.36 11.11 — 1.08 8.71 30.70 60.16
1979 21.07 3.17 3.48 2.50 2.30 9.53 1.83 2.36 30.58 1.50 2.12 1.46 0.40 11.38 — 1.57 8.55 32.09 62.67
1980 17.96 1.66 2.51 1.66 2.06 9.90 1.71 2.17 26.61 1.44 2.11 1.94 0.53 11.71 — 1.62 8.60 32.99 59.60
1981 15.25 1.38 1.00 1.13 1.43 9.82 1.47 2.10 22.48 1.29 2.01 2.31 0.50 11.85 — 1.81 8.57 33.60 56.08
1982 12.16 2.21 1.01 0.82 1.30 6.48 1.25 1.90 18.78 1.27 2.05 2.75 0.52 11.91 — 2.07 8.65 34.70 53.48
1983 11.08 2.44 1.01 1.06 1.24 5.09 1.15 1.80 17.50 1.36 2.12 2.69 0.61 11.97 — 2.29 8.69 35.76 53.26
1984 10.78 2.17 1.21 1.16 1.39 4.66 1.15 1.80 17.44 1.44 2.30 2.78 0.70 11.86 — 2.48 8.88 37.05 54.49
1985 9.63 2.25 1.43 1.02 1.50 3.39 1.19 1.68 16.18 1.47 2.51 2.75 0.79 11.59 — 2.53 8.97 37.80 53.98
1986 11.70 2.04 1.69 1.42 1.47 4.87 1.33 1.79 18.28 1.47 2.62 2.44 0.87 11.90 — 2.54 8.68 37.95 56.23
1987 12.10 2.30 2.08 1.59 1.34 4.27 1.54 1.75 18.52 1.54 2.69 2.55 1.02 12.05 — 2.41 8.35 38.15 56.67
1988 13.46 2.24 2.69 1.49 1.45 5.09 1.57 1.90 20.32 1.62 2.73 2.51 1.16 12.05 — 2.23 8.14 38.42 58.74
1989 14.84 2.81 2.90 1.78 1.72 5.06 1.86 1.91 22.07 1.56 2.76 2.52 1.55 11.72 — 1.80 7.61 37.79 59.86
1990 15.28 3.09 2.04 1.18 1.81 6.41 2.12 2.14 23.20 1.55 2.77 2.55 1.70 10.98 — 1.82 7.36 37.37 60.57
1991 14.74 3.31 0.31 0.19 1.89 8.12 2.39 2.38 23.27 1.55 2.84 2.68 1.89 9.99 — 1.80 7.42 36.94 60.21
1992 15.97 3.43 0.43 1.06 1.94 8.33 2.27 2.37 24.40 1.61 2.85 2.67 2.23 — 7.63 1.83 7.17 35.81 60.21
1993 16.71 3.54 0.51 1.85 1.96 8.20 2.16 2.45 25.12 1.68 2.89 2.67 2.35 — 6.73 1.92 6.85 35.12 60.24
1994 16.96 3.62 0.55 2.03 1.93 8.12 2.19 2.59 25.51 1.75 2.94 2.69 2.52 — 6.14 2.37 6.66 35.48 60.99
1995 17.21 3.64 0.56 2.06 1.99 8.23 2.23 2.75 26.00 1.81 2.99 2.62 2.77 — 6.00 2.49 6.56 36.33 62.33
1996 17.37 3.69 0.58 2.06 2.00 8.22 2.28 2.94 26.46 1.84 3.13 2.86 3.10 — 5.85 2.57 6.46 37.25 63.71
1997 18.10 3.66 1.16 2.01 2.13 8.36 2.32 3.28 27.71 1.92 3.20 3.02 3.14 — 5.92 2.52 6.45 37.98 65.69
1998 19.34 3.63 2.15 2.09 2.15 8.39 2.35 3.17 28.77 1.98 3.20 3.07 3.02 — 5.85 2.62 6.25 38.15 66.92
1999 18.67 3.56 2.51 1.09 2.13 7.83 2.17 2.83 27.58 1.91 3.20 2.91 3.02 — 6.08 2.68 5.88 38.27 65.85
2000 19.89 3.70 2.57 2.08 2.17 8.40 2.37 3.16 29.26 1.98 3.25 3.01 3.20 — 6.48 2.28 5.82 39.08 68.34
2001 R19.10 3.72 R2.39 2.00 2.26 8.03 R2.21 R3.01 R28.34 2.03 3.30 3.16 3.12 — R6.92 2.28 5.80 R39.60 R67.94
2002 17.79 3.44 2.02 1.89 2.12 7.63 2.08 R2.60 26.37 2.17 3.39 3.18 2.99 — 7.41 2.29 R5.75 R40.47 R66.84
2003P 19.26 3.78 1.31 2.18 2.24 8.85 2.35 2.34 28.01 2.31 3.41 3.37 2.85 — 8.18 2.09 5.74 41.49 69.50

FIGURE 2.9

barrels per day through 2016; it is then projected to decline to 510,000 barrels per day in 2025.

Due to declines in crude oil production after 2008 and in Alaska in 2016, the domestic petroleum supply is expected to decline after 2008 as well. However, consumption is projected to increase significantly from 2002 to 2025 (see Figure 2.11.) Thus, the EIA projects an increasing dependence on petroleum imports, with imports filling 70% of American petroleum needs in 2025, up from 53% in 2002. (See Figure 2.11.)

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