From the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2004 projected U.S. total energy consumption to increase from 97.7 quadrillion Btu to 136.5 quadrillion Btu between 2002 and 2025, an average annual increase of 1.5%, even with
FIGURE 9.8
efficiency standards for new energy-using equipment in buildings and for motors taken into consideration. Residential and industrial energy demands are expected to be below this average annual increase, at 1.0% per year and 1.3% per year, respectively. However, commercial and transportation energy demands will exceed the average, at 1.7% per year and 1.9% per year, respectively.
Per capita energy use is expected to increase slightly by 0.7% per year from 2002 through 2025. (See Figure 9.8.) Projections anticipate homes will be larger, but that electricity will be used more efficiently. Although annual personal highway and air travel will increase, efficiency improvements will offset much of the increase. Energy use per dollar of GDP (energy intensity) is also projected to decrease as efficiency gains are made.
The EIA projected that transportation fuel efficiency will improve more slowly from 2002 through 2025 than it did during the 1980s. (See Figure 9.9.) Light-duty vehicle efficiency is projected to improve by 6%. For light-duty vehicles, including cars, the EIA projected that any gains in efficiency will be offset by consumer preferences for larger, more powerful vehicles. By 2025 fuel efficiency for large trucks is expected to increase about 9%, while a larger 22% gain is expected for new aircraft.
The EIA predicted that the market for Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) will grow as a result of federal and state mandates. By 2025 AFVs are projected to account for 3.9 million vehicle sales, or 19% of total light-duty vehicle
FIGURE 9.9
sales. According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004, alternative fuels could replace about 166,500 barrels of oil per day by 2025, or 2.1% of all light-vehicle consumption.
From the Bush Administration
The National Energy Policy Plan (NEPP) of the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (PL 95-91) requires the president to submit to Congress a national energy policy plan every two years. This plan includes energy objectives and strategies, as well as projections of energy supply, demand, and prices. In May 2001 the Bush administration submitted the most recent plan, National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group. In late 2003, a measure to enact significant changes in national energy policy was defeated in Congress.
The 2001 report focused on long-term strategies to provide reliable energy and a clean environment. To do so, the report proposed modernizing the nation's infrastructure, which involved repairing and expanding its outdated network of electric generators, transmission lines, pipelines, and refineries. The report also proposed a modernization of conservation by increasing funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency research, creating tax incentives for purchasing hybrid vehicles, extending the "Energy Star" efficiency program, and reviewing the CAFE standards for transportation.
The report recognized America's dependence on a narrow range of energy sources and supported research into clean coal technologies, the increased use of nuclear power, and the use of new technologies in oil and natural gas exploration. It also proposed opening a small part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to environmentallyregulated exploration. Finally, the report promoted further improvements in emission control and the export of environmentally friendly technologies to other parts of the world.
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