How Many Children? - Racial And Ethnic Differences

Birth and Fertility Rates

Fertility is measured in a number of ways. One such measure, called the crude birth rate, is the number of live births per one thousand women in the population, regardless of their age. In 2001 the national birth rate was 14.1 live births per one thousand women. The birth rate for Hispanic women (of any race) was considerably higher (23) than for non-Hispanic African-American women (16.6), Asian/Pacific Islander women (16.4), Native American/Alaska Native women (13.7), and non-Hispanic white women (11.8). (See Table 1.1.)

Another way to measure the number of births is the fertility rate, the number of live births per one thousand women in the population between the ages of fifteen and forty-four years. These are the years generally considered to be a woman's reproductive age range. During the first ten years of the baby boom, fertility rates were well over one hundred births per one thousand women. In contrast, the fertility rate for American women in 2001 was 65.3 births per one thousand women, just over half the 1960 fertility rate of 118 births per one thousand women. In 2001 the fertility rate for Hispanic women was 96 births per one thousand women; non-Hispanic white women, 57.7; non-Hispanic African-American women, 69.1; and Asian/Pacific Islander women, 64.2. (See Table 1.1.)

A third way to measure fertility is the total fertility rate (TFR), or the total number of children one thousand women will have during their childbearing years if current fertility rates continue (in other words, the number of children one thousand women will have from the year they are fifteen through the year they are forty-four). A population will replace itself if this rate is 2,100 children per one thousand women or 2.1 children per woman, on average. This is

FIGURE 1.3

known as the population replacement rate. The TFR has not reached 2,100 since the 1980s. (See Table 1.2.)

Birth Trends

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, fertility rates among racial and ethnic groups are expected to differ markedly in the twenty-first century ("Projected Total Fertility Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1999 to 2100," January 13, 2000). The white fertility rate is expected to rise slightly through the century but not to reach the population replacement rate. The fertility rate for African-American, non-Hispanic women will remain steady at about the population replacement rate. Native American and Asian fertility rates are expected to decrease slightly but remain well above the population replacement rate through the twenty-first century. The Hispanic fertility rate is also expected to decrease from a high of 2,920.5 births per one thousand women in 1999 to 2,333.8 births per one thousand women in 2100—a rate still well above the population replacement rate and well above the rates of other ethnic and racial groups.

After 2020, Hispanic births are expected to add more people each year to the United States population than all other nonwhite racial/ethnic groups combined. By 2010 the Hispanic-origin population likely will become the nation's second-largest group. The white, non-Hispanic population will drop from 69.4 percent of the total population in 2000 to 50.1 percent in 2050, while the Hispanic population will rise from 12.6 percent of the total population in 2000 to 24.4 percent in 2050. (See Table 1.3.)

Increasing Diversity among Youth

The youth segment of the American population is becoming more racially diverse. Between 1980 and 2002

FIGURE 1.4

the non-Hispanic white share of the under-eighteen population dropped from 74% to 60%. (See Figure 1.6.) During the same period the non-Hispanic African-American share of this population remained stable at about 15%. The Native American/Alaska Native share stayed at 1%. In contrast, the Asian/Pacific Islander share of the under-eighteen population increased from 2% in 1980 to 4% in 2000. The Hispanic share of the under-eighteen population showed the highest increase, from 9% in 1980 to 18% in 2002. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, as of the 2000 Census, one of every six children in the United States (17%) was of Hispanic origin.

Median Age

The median ages of minority populations are significantly younger than the median age of the non-Hispanic white population, a natural consequence of more babies per woman born in these populations. In 2000 the median age of Hispanics was 25.8 years, Native Americans/Alaska Natives 28 years, Asians 32.7 years, non-Hispanic African-Americans

FIGURE 1.5

30.2 years, and non-Hispanic whites 37.7 years. Among people from one racial/ethnic background, people of Hispanic origin had the youngest population, with 35% under age eighteen, compared with 31% of the African-American population and 23.5% of the white population.

Evidence also suggests that racial and ethnic lines became less rigid in the United States in the last two decades of the twentieth century, as people from different ethnic and racial backgrounds parented children together. People who reported in the 2000 Census that they came from more than one ethnic or racial background had a significantly younger median age than all single-race groups, at 22.7 years. Almost one in two people (41.9%) with a mixed ethnic or racial background were under the age of eighteen. (See Figure 1.7.) This finding may indicate that distinctions between racial and ethnic groups in America will continue to blur in the twenty-first century.

TABLE 1.1

Crude birth rates, fertility rates, and birth rates by age of mother, according to race and Hispanic origin, selected years, 1950–2001
(Data are based on birth certificates)
			Age of mother
				15–19 years
Race, Hispanic origin, and year	Crude birth rate1	Fertility rate2	10–14 years	Total	15–17 years	18–19 years	20–24 years	25–29 years	30–34 years	35–39 years	40–44 years	45–54 years3
All races	Live birth per 1,000 women
1950	24.1	106.2	1.0	81.6	40.7	132.7	196.6	166.1	103.7	52.9	15.1	1.2
1960	23.7	118.0	0.8	89.1	43.9	166.7	258.1	197.4	112.7	56.2	15.5	0.9
1970	18.4	87.9	1.2	68.3	38.8	114.7	167.8	145.1	73.3	31.7	8.1	0.5
1980	15.9	68.4	1.1	53.0	32.5	82.1	115.1	112.9	61.9	19.8	3.9	0.2
1985	15.8	66.3	1.2	51.0	31.0	79.6	108.3	111.0	69.1	24.0	4.0	0.2
1990	16.7	70.9	1.4	59.9	37.5	88.6	116.5	120.2	80.8	31.7	5.5	0.2
1995	14.6	64.6	1.3	56.0	35.5	87.7	107.5	108.8	81.1	34.0	6.6	0.3
1996	14.4	64.1	1.2	53.5	33.3	84.7	107.8	108.6	82.1	34.9	6.8	0.3
1997	14.2	63.6	1.1	51.3	31.4	82.1	107.3	108.3	83.0	35.7	7.1	0.4
1998	14.3	64.3	1.0	50.3	29.9	80.9	108.4	110.2	85.2	36.9	7.4	0.4
1999	14.2	64.4	0.9	48.8	28.2	79.1	107.9	111.2	87.1	37.8	7.4	0.4
2000	14.4	65.9	0.9	47.7	26.9	78.1	109.7	113.5	91.2	39.7	8.0	0.5
2001	14.1	65.3	0.8	45.3	24.7	76.1	106.2	113.4	91.9	40.6	8.1	0.5
Race of child:4 white
1950	23.0	102.3	0.4	70.0	31.3	120.5	190.4	165.1	102.6	51.4	14.5	1.0
1960	22.7	113.2	0.4	79.4	35.5	154.6	252.8	194.9	109.6	54.0	14.7	0.8
1970	17.4	84.1	0.5	57.4	29.2	101.5	163.4	145.9	71.9	30.0	7.5	0.4
1980	14.9	64.7	0.6	44.7	25.2	72.1	109.5	112.4	60.4	18.5	3.4	0.2
Race of mother:5 white
1980	15.1	65.6	0.6	45.4	25.5	73.2	111.1	113.8	61.2	18.8	3.5	0.2
1985	15.0	64.1	0.6	43.3	24.4	70.4	104.1	112.3	69.9	23.3	3.7	0.2
1990	15.8	68.3	0.7	50.8	29.5	78.0	109.8	120.7	81.7	31.5	5.2	0.2
1995	14.1	63.6	0.8	49.5	29.7	80.0	104.7	117.7	83.3	34.2	6.4	0.3
1996	13.9	63.3	0.7	47.5	28.0	77.4	105.3	117.7	84.6	35.3	6.7	0.3
1997	13.7	62.8	0.7	45.5	26.6	74.8	104.5	111.3	85.7	36.1	6.9	0.3
1998	13.8	63.6	0.6	44.9	25.6	73.9	105.4	113.6	88.5	37.5	7.3	0.4
1999	13.7	64.0	0.6	44.0	24.5	72.8	105.0	114.9	90.7	38.5	7.4	0.4
2000	13.9	65.3	0.6	43.2	23.3	72.3	106.6	116.7	94.6	40.2	7.9	0.4
2001	13.7	65.0	0.5	41.2	21.4	70.8	103.7	117.0	95.8	41.3	8.0	0.5
Race of child:4 black or African American
1960	31.9	153.5	4.3	156.1	—	—	295.4	218.6	137.1	73.9	21.9	1.1
1970	25.3	115.4	5.2	140.7	101.4	204.9	202.7	136.3	79.6	41.9	12.5	1.0
1980	22.1	88.1	4.3	100.0	73.6	138.8	146.3	109.1	62.9	24.5	5.8	0.3
Race of mother:5 black or African American
1980	21.3	84.9	4.3	97.8	72.5	135.1	140.0	103.9	59.9	23.5	5.6	0.3
1985	20.4	78.8	4.5	95.4	69.3	132.4	135.0	100.2	57.9	23.9	4.6	0.3
1990	22.4	86.8	4.9	112.8	82.3	152.9	160.2	115.5	68.7	28.1	5.5	0.3
1995	17.8	71.0	4.1	94.4	68.6	134.6	133.7	95.6	63.0	28.4	6.0	0.3
1996	17.3	69.2	3.5	89.6	63.4	130.1	133.2	94.3	62.0	28.7	6.1	0.3
1997	17.1	69.0	3.1	86.3	59.4	127.4	135.2	95.0	62.6	29.3	6.5	0.3
1998	17.1	69.4	2.8	83.5	55.5	124.3	138.4	97.5	63.2	30.0	6.6	0.3
1999	16.8	68.5	2.5	79.1	50.7	120.1	137.9	97.3	62.7	30.2	6.5	0.3
2000	17.0	70.0	2.3	77.4	49.0	118.8	141.3	100.3	65.4	31.5	7.2	0.4
2001	16.3	67.6	2.0	71.8	43.9	114.0	133.2	99.2	64.8	31.6	7.2	0.4
American Indian or Alaska Native mothers5
1980	20.7	82.7	1.9	82.2	51.5	129.5	143.7	106.6	61.8	28.1	8.2	*
1985	19.8	78.6	1.7	79.2	47.7	124.1	139.1	109.6	62.6	27.4	6.0	*
1990	18.9	76.2	1.6	81.1	48.5	129.3	148.7	110.3	61.5	27.5	5.9	*
1995	15.3	63.0	1.6	72.9	44.7	121.8	123.1	91.6	56.5	24.3	5.5	*
1996	14.9	61.8	1.6	68.2	42.7	112.9	123.5	91.1	56.5	24.4	5.5	*
1997	14.7	60.8	1.5	65.2	41.1	106.8	122.5	91.6	56.0	24.4	5.4	0.3
1998	14.8	61.3	1.5	64.7	39.8	106.5	125.1	92.0	56.8	24.6	5.3	*
1999	14.2	59.0	1.4	59.9	36.5	97.9	120.7	90.6	53.8	24.3	5.7	0.3
2000	14.0	58.7	1.1	58.3	34.1	97.1	117.2	91.8	55.5	24.6	5.7	0.3
2001	13.7	58.1	1.0	56.3	31.4	94.8	115.0	90.4	55.9	24.7	5.7	0.3

—Data not available.
*Rates based on fewer than 20 births are considered unreliable and are not shown.
1Live births per 1,000 population.
2Total number of live births regardless of age of mother per 1,000 women 15–44 years of age.
3Prior to 1997 data are for live births to mothers 45–49 years of age per 1,000 women 45–49 years of age. Starting in 1997 data are for live births to mothers 45–54 years of age per 1,000 women 45–49 years of age.
4Live births are tabulated by race of child.
5Live births are tabulated by race and/or Hispanic origin of mother.
6Prior to 1993, data from states lacking an Hispanic-origin item on the birth certificate were excluded. Interpretation of trend data should take into consideration expansion of reporting areas and immigration.
7Rates in 1985 were not calculated because estimates for the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations were not available.
Notes: Data are based on births adjusted for underregistration for 1950 and on registered births for all other years. Beginning in 1970, births to persons who were not residents of the 50 states and the District of Columbia are excluded. The population estimates used to compute rates for 1991 through 2000 differ from those used previously. Starting with Health, United States, 2003, rates for 1991–99 were revised using intercensal population estimates based on Census 2000. Rates for 2000 were computed using Census 2000 counts and rates for 2001 were computed using 2000-based postcensal estimates. Estimates of intercensal populations used to compute birth rates for teenagers 15–17 and 18–19 years are based on adjustments of the revised populations for the 5-year age group, 15–19 years. The race groups, white, black, American Indian or Alaska Native, and Asian or Pacific Islander, include persons of Hispanic and non-Hispanic origin. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.
SOURCE: "Crude Birth Rates, Fertility Rates, and Birth Rates by Age of Mother, According to Race and Hispanic Origin: United States, Selected Years 1950–2001," in Health, United States, 2003, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, 2003, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/tables/2003/03hus003.pdf (accessed August 24, 2004)
Asian or Pacific Islander mothers5
1980	19.9	73.2	0.3	26.2	12.0	46.2	93.3	127.4	96.0	38.3	8.5	0.7
1985	18.7	68.4	0.4	23.8	12.5	40.8	83.6	123.0	93.6	42.7	8.7	1.2
1990	19.0	69.6	0.7	26.4	16.0	40.2	79.2	126.3	106.5	49.6	10.7	1.1
1995	16.7	62.6	0.7	25.5	15.1	42.2	64.2	103.7	102.3	50.1	11.8	0.8
1996	16.5	62.3	0.6	23.5	14.3	38.6	63.5	102.8	104.1	50.2	11.9	0.8
1997	16.2	61.3	0.5	22.3	13.5	37.0	61.2	101.6	102.5	51.0	11.5	0.9
1998	15.9	60.1	0.5	22.2	13.2	36.9	59.2	98.7	101.6	51.4	11.8	0.9
1999	15.9	60.9	0.4	21.4	11.8	36.5	58.9	100.8	104.3	52.9	11.3	0.9
2000	17.1	65.8	0.3	20.5	11.6	32.6	60.3	108.4	116.5	59.0	12.6	0.8
2001	16.4	64.2	0.2	19.8	10.3	32.8	59.1	106.4	112.6	56.7	12.3	0.9
Hispanic of Latino mothers5,6,7
1980	23.5	95.4	1.7	82.2	52.1	126.9	156.4	132.1	83.2	39.9	10.6	0.7
1990	26.7	107.7	2.4	100.3	65.9	147.7	181.0	153.0	98.3	45.3	10.9	0.7
1995	24.1	98.8	2.6	99.3	67.9	146.7	171.9	140.4	90.5	43.7	10.7	0.6
1996	23.8	97.5	2.4	94.6	64.1	140.5	170.2	140.7	91.3	43.9	10.7	0.6
1997	23.0	94.2	2.1	89.6	61.0	132.9	162.6	137.5	89.6	43.4	10.7	0.6
1998	22.7	93.2	1.9	87.9	58.4	131.7	159.3	136.1	90.5	43.4	10.8	0.6
1999	22.5	93.0	1.9	86.8	56.9	129.8	157.3	135.8	92.3	44.5	10.6	0.6
2000	23.1	95.9	1.7	87.3	55.5	132.6	161.3	139.9	97.1	46.6	11.5	0.6
2001	23.0	96.0	1.6	86.4	52.8	135.5	163.5	140.4	97.6	47.9	11.6	0.7
White, not Hispanic or Latino mothers5,6,7
1980	14.2	62.4	0.4	41.2	22.4	67.7	105.5	110.6	59.9	17.7	3.0	0.1
1990	14.4	62.8	0.5	42.5	23.2	66.6	97.5	115.3	79.4	30.0	4.7	0.2
1995	12.5	57.5	0.4	39.3	22.0	65.9	90.2	105.1	81.5	32.8	5.9	0.3
1996	12.3	57.1	0.4	37.6	20.6	63.8	90.1	104.9	82.8	33.9	6.2	0.3
1997	12.2	56.8	0.4	36.0	19.4	61.9	90.0	104.8	84.3	34.8	6.5	0.3
1998	12.2	57.6	0.3	35.3	18.4	60.8	91.2	107.4	87.2	36.4	6.8	0.4
1999	12.1	57.7	0.3	34.1	17.1	59.3	90.6	108.6	89.5	37.3	6.9	0.4
2000	12.2	58.5	0.3	32.6	15.8	57.5	91.2	109.4	93.2	38.8	7.3	0.4
2001	11.8	57.7	0.3	30.3	14.0	54.8	87.1	108.9	94.3	39.8	7.5	0.4
Black or African American, not Hispanic or Latino mothers5,6,7
1980	22.9	90.7	4.6	105.1	77.2	146.5	152.2	117.7	65.2	25.8	5.8	0.3
1990	23.0	89.0	5.0	116.2	84.9	157.5	165.1	118.4	70.2	28.7	5.6	0.3
1995	18.2	72.8	4.2	97.2	70.6	138.5	137.8	98.5	64.4	28.8	6.1	0.3
1996	17.6	70.7	3.6	91.9	65.0	133.4	137.0	96.7	63.2	29.1	6.2	0.3
1997	17.4	70.3	3.2	88.3	60.9	130.4	138.8	97.2	63.6	29.6	6.5	0.3
1998	17.5	70.9	2.9	85.7	57.0	127.4	142.5	99.9	64.4	30.4	6.7	0.3
1999	17.1	69.9	2.6	81.0	52.0	123.1	142.1	99.8	63.9	30.6	6.5	0.3
2000	17.3	71.4	2.4	79.2	50.1	121.9	145.4	102.8	66.5	31.8	7.2	0.4
2001	16.6	69.1	2.1	73.5	44.9	116.7	137.2	102.1	66.2	32.1	7.3	0.4

TABLE 1.2

Children ever born per 1,000 women 40–44 years old, selected years, 1976–2002
(Numbers in thousands)
		Children ever born per 1,000 women	Percent distribution of women by number of children ever born
Year	Number of women		Total	None	1 child	2 children	3 children	4 children	5 or more children
SOURCE: Barbara Downs, "Table 2. Children Ever Born per 1,000 Women 40 to 44 Years Old: Selected Years, 1976 to 2002," in Fertility of American Women: June 2002, Current Population Reports, P20-548, U.S. Census Bureau, 2003, http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p20-548.pdf (accessed August 24, 2004)
1976	5,684	3,091	100.0	10.2	9.6	21.7	22.7	15.8	20.1
1980	5,983	2,988	100.0	10.1	9.6	24.6	22.6	15.5	17.6
1985	7,226	2,447	100.0	11.4	12.6	32.9	23.1	10.9	9.1
1990	8,905	2,045	100.0	16.0	16.9	35.0	19.4	8.0	4.8
1995	10,244	1,961	100.0	17.5	17.6	35.2	18.5	7.4	3.9
1998	11,113	1,877	100.0	19.0	17.3	35.8	18.2	6.1	3.5
2000	11,447	1,913	100.0	19.0	16.4	35.0	19.1	7.2	3.3
2002	11,561	1,930	100.0	17.9	17.4	35.4	18.9	6.8	3.6

TABLE 1.3

Projected population of the United States, by race and Hispanic origin, 2000–50
(In thousands except as indicated. As of July 1. Resident population.)
Population or percent and race or Hispanic origin	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
*Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and two or more races.
SOURCE: "Table 1a. Projected Population of the United States, by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050," from U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. Census Bureau, March 18, 2004, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/natprojtab01a.pdf (accessed August 24, 2004)
Population total	282,125	308936	335,806	363,584	391,946	419,854
White alone	228,548	244,995	260,629	275,731	289,690	302,626
Black alone	35,818	40,454	45,365	50,442	55,876	61,361
Asian alone*	10,684	14,241	17,988	22,580	27,992	33,430
All other races	7,075	9,246	11,822	14,831	18,388	22,437
Hispanic (of any race)	35,622	47,756	59,756	73,055	87,585	102,560
White alone, not Hispanic	195,729	201,112	205,936	209,176	210,331	210,283
	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
White alone	81.0	79.3	77.6	75.8	73.9	72.1
Black alone	12.7	13.1	13.5	13.9	14.3	14.6
Asian alone	3.8	4.6	5.4	6.2	7.1	8.0
All other races*	2.5	3.0	3.5	4.1	4.7	5.3
Hispanic (of any race)	12.6	15.5	17.8	20.1	22.3	24.4
White alone, not Hispanic	69.4	65.1	61.3	57.5	53.7	50.1

FIGURE 1.6

FIGURE 1.7