TABLE 5.11
| Rates of violent crime and personal theft, by gender, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 2003 | ||||||||
| Victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older | ||||||||
| Violent crimes | ||||||||
| Characteristic of victim | Rape/sexual assault | Assault | ||||||
| Population | All | Robbery | Total | Aggravated | Simple | Personal theft | ||
| Note: The National Crime Victimization Survey includes as violent crime rape, sexual assault, robbery, and assault. Because the NCVS interviews persons about their victimizations, murder and manslaughter cannot be included. | ||||||||
| 1Based on 10 or fewer sample cases. | ||||||||
| 2Racial and ethnic categories in 2003 are not comparable to those in previous years. | ||||||||
| SOURCE: "Table 6. Rates of Violent Crime and Personal Theft, by Gender, Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 2003," in Criminal Victimization in the United States, 2003, U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2004, http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cv03.pdf (accessed October 8, 2004) | ||||||||
| Gender | ||||||||
| Male | 116,041,090 | 26.3 | 0.21 | 3.2 | 23.0 | 5.9 | 17.1 | 0.4 |
| Female | 123,264,890 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 3.3 | 12.4 | 1.1 |
| Race2 | ||||||||
| White | 197,577,400 | 21.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 18.8 | 4.2 | 14.7 | 0.6 |
| Black | 28,561,780 | 29.1 | 0.81 | 5.9 | 22.3 | 6.0 | 16.3 | 1.7 |
| Other race | 11,120,220 | 16.0 | 0.21 | 3.4 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 0.91 |
| Two or more | 2,046,590 | 67.7 | 5.81 | 8.11 | 53.7 | 21.3 | 32.4 | 2.71 |
| Hispanic origin2 | ||||||||
| Hispanic | 30,275,550 | 24.2 | 0.41 | 3.1 | 20.8 | 4.6 | 16.1 | 1.11 |
| Non-Hispanic | 207,263,340 | 22.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 19.0 | 4.6 | 14.4 | 0.7 |
| Age | ||||||||
| 12–15 | 17,084,330 | 51.6 | 1.21 | 5.2 | 45.3 | 8.9 | 36.4 | 1.51 |
| 16–19 | 16,210,780 | 53.0 | 1.31 | 5.1 | 46.6 | 11.9 | 34.7 | 1.41 |
| 20–24 | 19,786,270 | 43.3 | 1.7 | 6.4 | 35.3 | 9.8 | 25.5 | 1.6 |
| 25–34 | 39,449,790 | 26.4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 22.3 | 6.0 | 16.3 | 1.0 |
| 35–49 | 65,780,190 | 18.5 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 16.1 | 3.8 | 12.3 | 0.5 |
| 50–64 | 46,736,200 | 10.3 | 0.41 | 1.4 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 7.0 | 0.31 |
| 65 or older | 34,258,430 | 2.0 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 1.1 | 0.51 |
and Deborah R. Azrael, "The Relative Frequency of Offensive and Defensive Gun Use: Results of a National Survey," Violence and Victims, vol. 15, 2000). In "In the Safety of your Own Home: Results from a National Survey of Gun Use at Home" (Social Science and Medicine, vol. 50, 2000), the same authors concluded that guns kept in the home to thwart crime are probably used more often to frighten intimates.
A 1992 incident in Louisiana illustrates what can go wrong when a loaded weapon is kept in the home. A sixteen-year-old Japanese student on his way to a Halloween party approached the wrong house and was shot and killed by the homeowner, who claimed he feared for his family's safety. A unanimous jury found the homeowner not guilty. Researchers John R. Lott, Jr., and David B. Mustard looked at the Louisiana case as well as crime gun data from three thousand U.S. counties over an eighteen-year period in order to determine whether arming citizens deters violent crime. In "Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns" (The Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 26, no. 1, January 1997), Lott and Mustard declared that cases like the one in Louisiana are rare. They concluded that permitting law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons would deter violent crimes without increasing accidental deaths. They cited other studies claiming that firearms are used for self-defense up to 2.5 million times each year, with 400,000 of the selfdefenders believing that their use of a gun almost certainly saved a life. Lott and Mustard noted that even if these numbers are inflated by a large amount, they "suggest that defensive gun use on net saved lives."
Criticism of Lott's Conclusions
Several reviewers of "Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns" could not substantiate Lott and Mustard's claims. Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, for example, found the following problems with the study:
- The methods used in the study were incorrect and have been discredited. For example, using arrest rates to predict crime rates is problematic. Furthermore, "shall issue" laws (allowing people to carry concealed weapons) tend to be approved when violent crime has recently increased. Assuming the laws caused a decrease in crime, rather than that being simply a natural trend back toward an average level after such increases, may be mistaken.
- Lott and Mustard found the strongest deterrent effects of carrying weapons were related to the crimes of rape, aggravated assault, and murder. Many such crimes, however, are committed by intimates or acquaintances, situations "in which carrying a concealed gun in public is less relevant." Predatory street crime, conversely, which is often committed by strangers, has been affected little or not at all by "shall issue" laws.
TABLE 5.12
| Rates of violence and personal theft, by selected victim characteristics, 2003 | ||||||||
| Victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older | ||||||||
| Violent crimes | ||||||||
| Characteristic of victim | Rape/sexual assault | Assault | ||||||
| Population | All | Robbery | Total | Aggravated | Simple | Personal theft | ||
| Note: The National Crime Victimization Survey includes as violent crime rape, sexual assault, robbery, and assault. Because the NCVS interviews persons about their victimizations, murder and manslaughter cannot be included. | ||||||||
| *Based on 10 or fewer sample cases. | ||||||||
| SOURCE: "Table 7. Rates of Violent Crime and Personal Theft, by Household Income, Marital Status, Region, and Location of Residence of Victims, 2003," in Criminal Victimization in the United States, 2003, U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2004, http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cv03.pdf (accessed October 8, 2004) | ||||||||
| Household income | ||||||||
| Less than $7,500 | 8,335,120 | 49.9 | 1.6* | 9.0 | 39.3 | 10.8 | 28.5 | 1.2* |
| $7,500–$14,999 | 15,893,630 | 30.8 | 1.8* | 4.0 | 25.0 | 7.9 | 17.0 | 1.1* |
| $15,000–$24,999 | 24,560,390 | 26.3 | 0.8* | 4.0 | 21.5 | 4.5 | 17.0 | 0.7* |
| $25,000–$34,999 | 24,252,930 | 24.9 | 0.9* | 2.2 | 21.8 | 5.0 | 16.9 | 0.8* |
| $35,000–$49,999 | 32,082,950 | 21.4 | 0.9* | 2.1 | 18.3 | 4.8 | 13.5 | 0.7* |
| $50,000–$74,999 | 35,174,290 | 22.9 | 0.5* | 2.0 | 20.4 | 5.2 | 15.2 | 0.5* |
| $75,000 or more | 47,855,860 | 17.5 | 0.5* | 1.7 | 15.4 | 2.7 | 12.6 | 1.0 |
| Marital status | ||||||||
| Never married | 76,429,290 | 41.6 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 34.8 | 8.7 | 26.1 | 1.4 |
| Married | 120,862,960 | 10.2 | 0.2* | 0.8 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 0.3 |
| Divorced/separated | 25,907,600 | 35.1 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 29.7 | 7.8 | 21.9 | 0.7* |
| Widowed | 14,297,780 | 3.5 | 0.0* | 1.1* | 2.5 | 0.1* | 2.3 | 0.8* |
| Region | ||||||||
| Northeast | 44,525,430 | 21.0 | 0.2* | 2.7 | 18.1 | 3.9 | 14.2 | 1.1 |
| Midwest | 55,886,090 | 23.6 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 19.4 | 4.6 | 14.8 | 1.0 |
| South | 86,489,420 | 21.1 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 13.4 | 0.5 |
| West | 52,405,050 | 25.2 | 0.6* | 2.1 | 22.5 | 5.6 | 16.9 | 0.6 |
| Residence | ||||||||
| Urban | 66,466,630 | 28.2 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 23.8 | 5.4 | 18.3 | 1.3 |
| Suburban | 115,814,150 | 21.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 18.1 | 4.3 | 13.7 | 0.7 |
| Rural | 57,025,210 | 18.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 16.4 | 4.2 | 12.2 | 0.3* |
- Important gun laws besides "shall issue" laws, such as background checks and waiting periods, were enacted during the time period of the study, but Lott and Mustard did not account for their effects.
- The study seems to mistake or misinterpret dates on which "shall issue" laws took effect.
- Lott and Mustard's definition for a "shall issue" law does not apply to every state they refer to as a "shall issue" state.
Because of these alleged errors in the study, these researchers found little support for Lott and Mustard's conclusion that concealed handgun laws reduce violent crime. Some critics of Lott and Mustard's study suggest that the laws may even increase homicide rates. As is true with other facets of the gun control debate, both sides can quote statistics and studies to support their position.
More Guns, Less Crime?
Lott devoted part of the second edition of his book More Guns, Less Crime (University of Chicago Press: Chicago, 2000) to answering his critics. Looking at statistics from states with new concealed handgun laws and increased rates of gun ownership, Lott found greater drops in crime than in states without these laws. He maintained that criminals are deterred by the threat of confronting an armed victim and by higher penalties (arrests and convictions). His conclusion remains that more violent crimes are stopped by guns than are committed with guns.
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