Countries of Proliferation Concern - China

One of the five nuclear weapons states of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), China has been developing WMD since 1955. It conducted its first nuclear test in 1964 and maintains a nuclear arsenal that consists of missiles and various other munitions. China's missile collection includes intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs),

TABLE 4.1

Missiles, by range and country of possession, 2004
Range	Country
SOURCE: "Table 1. Missiles by Categories of Range," in Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries, Congressional Research Service, March 5, 2004, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/31999.pdf (accessed September 23,2004)
Intercontinental and/or submarine-launched ballistic missiles (>5,500 km)	China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, North Korea (Taepo Dong 2 or Taepo Dong ICBM)
Intermediate-range ballistic missiles (3,000–5,500 km)	India, Iran, possibly North Korea
Medium-range ballistic missiles (1,000–3,000 km)	Israel, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran
Short-range ballistic missiles (70–1,000 km)	Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Libya, Netherlands, North Korea, Pakistan, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, South Korea, Syria, Taiwan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, and Yemen.

submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and theater missiles, according to inventories compiled by the Arms Control Association (a nonpartisan organization dedicated to promoting public understanding of and support for effective arms control policies). The country is estimated to possess around four hundred nuclear warheads, and maintains missiles targeted at the United States and Taiwan. Currently, China and Russia are the only two potential U.S. adversaries with the capability of deploying missiles that can target and reach U.S. cities. China has, however, repeatedly pledged a "no first use" policy with its nuclear forces, meaning it would only use nuclear weapons to retaliate for an offensive nuclear attack.

Development of improved missile systems is a high priority for China. In December 2002 it successfully tested a DF-21 medium-range missile (1,800 kilometers or approximately 1,100 miles) with multiple warheads. Testing

FIGURE 4.1

of multiple warheads on the DF-31, a missile under development with a range of eight thousand kilometers (nearly five thousand miles), is expected.

China agreed to the NPT in 1992 and pledged not to export assembled ground-to-ground missiles (missiles originating from a land-based launcher and directed toward another land-based target) two years later. In 1996 it signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), stating at the time that former chemical weapons production facilities in China had the ability to produce warfare agents such as mustard and lewisite, but that all chemical weapons stockpiles had been destroyed. The U.S. government remains skeptical about the veracity of these claims. U.S. defense officials also question China's claim that it does not possess biological weapons agents, despite the fact that China signed the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) in 1984.

According to China and Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Policy Issues (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, August 8, 2003), China has repeatedly ignored promises it has made about not selling WMD, particularly missile technology, to other countries. At the close of 2004, the Bush administration had imposed sanctions against Chinese companies on at least eight occasions for transfers related to ballistic missiles, chemical weapons, and cruise missiles to Pakistan and Iran. It is widely accepted among analysts, and documented in Arms Control Association (ACA) fact sheets, that China directly assisted Pakistan's short-range ballistic missile and medium-range ballistic missile programs with raw materials and technical expertise, and also provided short-range ballistic missiles to Iran and intermediate-range ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI is a nonprofit organization founded in 2001 by CNN founder Ted Turner and former Senator Sam Nunn that seeks to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and preventing the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons) reports that China has also entered into governmental nuclear cooperation agreements with about twenty countries. These agreements are exclusively limited to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and contain clauses that guarantee against the re-transfer of material or equipment by either country without prior consent by the other country and require adequate physical protection on all imported material and equipment in the territory of either country.