Countries of Proliferation Concern - North Korea

North Korea poses a serious threat to the peace of Asia. An isolated nation with a large military, it has a

TABLE 4.2

North Korea's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and missile programs, January 2001
IAEA = International Atomic Energy Agency
CTBT = Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
CWC = Chemical Weapons Convention
SRBM = Short Range Ballistic Missile (Range: 1000 kilometers or less)
MRBM = Medium Range Ballistic Missile
ICBM = Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (Range: greater than 5,500 kilometers)
MTCR = Military Technology Control Regime
NPT = Nonproliferation Treaty
NBC = Nuclear, Biological, or Chemical
SOURCE: "North Korea: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs," in Proliferation: Threat and Response, U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, January 2001, http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/ptr20010110.pdf (accessed September 23, 2004)
Nuclear	Plutonium production at Yongbyon and Taechon facilities frozen by the 1994 Agreed Framework; freeze verified by IAEA.
	Believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium prior to 1992 for at leastone nuclear weapon.
	Concerns remain over possible covert nuclear weapons effort.
	Ratified the NPT; later declared it has a special status. This status is not recognized by the United States or the United Nations. Has not signed the CTBT.
Biological	Pursued biological warfare capabilities since 1960s.
	Possesses infrastructure that can be used to produce biological warfare agents; may have biological weapons available for use.
	Acceded to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.
Chemical	Believed to possess large stockpile of chemical precursors and chemical warfare agents.
	Probably would employ chemical agents against U.S. and allied forces under certain scenarios.
	Has not signed the CWC.
Ballistic missile	Produces and capable of using SCUD B and SCUD C SRBMs, and No Dong MRBM.
	Successfully launched variant of Taepo Dong 1 MRBM in failed attempt to orbit satellite. (August 1998)
	Developing Taepo Dong 2 ICBM-range missile; agreed to flight test moratorium on long-range missiles in September 1999; reaffirmed in June 2000.
	Remains capable of conducting test.
	Not a member of the MTCR.
Other means of delivery available	Land- and sea-launched anti-ship cruise missiles; none have NBC warheads.
	Aircraft: fighters, bombers, helicopters.
	Ground systems: artillery, rocket launchers, mortars, sprayers.
	Special Operations Forces.

highly developed nuclear weapons program and has constructed missiles capable of hitting targets in neighboring countries, including the United States. Table 4.2 demonstrates North Korea's pursuit of various NBC (nuclear, biological, and chemical) weapons and missile programs. North Korean nuclear research harks back to the 1960s, when the country established a research reactor with the help of the Soviet Union. It signed the NPT in 1985, but there were discrepancies between its nuclear declarations and the results of IAEA inspections. North Korea agreed to halt its nuclear program in 1994 when it entered into an agreement with the United States, which pledged to help it develop civilian nuclear energy. North Korea nullified this agreement in 2002, when it revealed its uranium-enrichment program for nuclear weapons.

Although North Korea's deputy foreign minister admitted to a U.S. official that his country did, in fact, possess a nuclear weapon, the question has still not been answered officially. The U.S. National Intelligence Council estimated in December 2001 that North Korea had already produced one, possibly two, nuclear weapons. In January 2003 North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. In June 2003 it openly announced its intention to build a nuclear deterrent force. Since late 2003 North Korea has engaged in talks with the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea in an effort to end its nuclear weapons program. However, by the close of 2004 no progress had been made despite U.S. insistence on dismantling the North Korean nuclear program before addressing its economic and security concerns.

North Korea also has a full-scale missile program. It successfully developed a series of Scud missiles and flight-tested an ICBM in 1998. Figure 4.5 and Figure 4.6 show the ranges of North Korea's existing short- and mediumrange missiles, as well as the potential range of long-range missiles it is developing. In 2004 Jane's Defense Weekly reported that North Korea was deploying a new land-based ballistic missile with a range of 2,500–4,000 kilometers (1,553–2,485 miles) and a sea-based missile with a range of at least 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles). Both missiles can carry nuclear weapons and are capable of striking the United States. North Korea's stockpile of approximately six hundred ballistic missiles reportedly includes about a hundred medium-range No-Dong missiles. These missiles could reach an estimated 1,300 kilometers (808 miles).

North Korea has refused to sign the CWC and is believed to maintain a significant chemical weapons capability. The NTI reports that North Korea has twelve chemical weapons facilities—where raw chemicals, precursors, and actual agents are produced—and six major storage depots. Its stockpile of chemical weapons is said to include sarin, phosgene, and mustard, as well as several types of delivery munitions. The NTI estimates North Korea's chemical weapon production capacity as about 4,500 tons per year with the potential to triple in wartime.

North Korea signed the BTWC in 1987, but U.S. officials suspect that it is secretly developing biological weapons agents, including the bacterias that cause anthrax and plague.