Illegal Aliens - How Many Illegal Aliens Are There?

Because illegal aliens do not readily identify themselves for fear of deportation, it is almost impossible to determine how many illegal aliens are in the United States. Various sources have estimated between two and twelve million, but most estimates are little more than educated guesses and are often politically influenced. (The wide variance among the estimates is an indication of their unreliability.) The figures also vary somewhat between winter months and summer months based on availability of agricultural work.

Illegal Alien Estimates

Figure 5.1 provides an estimate of the number of illegal aliens living in the United States from 1986 to 2002. It also indicates some of the differences in estimates between Census Bureau and Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) demographers. (Karen Woodrow and Jeffrey Passel worked for the Census Bureau and Passel later joined the Urban Institute. Robert Warren worked for the INS.) These estimates indicate that the total number of illegal aliens rose from 3.2 million in 1986 to 9.3 million in 2002. In Undocumented Immigrants: Facts and Figures (Jeffrey Passell, Randy Capps, and Michael Fix, Washington, DC: The Urban Institute, January 12, 2004), the demographers estimated that nearly two-thirds of all illegal aliens lived in just six states: California (27%), Texas (13%), New York (8%), Florida (7%), Illinois (6%), and New Jersey (4%).

Figure 5.2 shows that in 2002, 57% of all illegal aliens in the United States were from Mexico, compared to an estimated 69% in 1986. While the percentage share of illegal aliens from Mexico decreased between 1986 and 2002, their total numbers still increased dramatically. Sixty-nine percent of 3.2 million total illegal aliens in 1986 equaled 2.2 million from Mexico. By 2002 the number of illegal aliens from Mexico rose to 5.3 million (57% of 9.3 million).

FIGURE 5.1
Estimates of unauthorized aliens residing in the United States, 1986–2002
SOURCE: Ruth Ellen Wasem, "Figure. 1. Estimates of Unauthorized Aliens Residing in the United States," in Unauthorized Aliens in the United States: Estimates since 1986, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, September 15, 2004, http://www.immigrationforum.org/documents/crs/CRS_undocumented_2004.pdf (accessed March 7, 2005)

A November 2004 report by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) also estimated the number of illegal aliens in the country at about ten million (Steven A. Camarota, Economy Slowed, But Immigration Didn't: The Foreign-Born Population, 2000–2004, Washington, DC). However, in The Underground Labor Force Is Rising to the Surface (New York: Bear Stearns Asset Management, January 3, 2005), Robert Justich and Betty Ng disputed the estimates of the illegal alien population based on Census Bureau counts. Justich and Ng suggested that the Census Bureau accounted for only half of the illegal alien population. By the authors' projections, the 2004 illegal alien population was as high as twenty million. They based their projections on sources such as increases in school enrollments, foreign remittances (money sent by foreign workers to their families back home), border crossings, and housing permits. They suggested that more small businesses had taken advantage of illegal workers, moving four to six million jobs into the underground market. They FIGURE 5.2
Unauthorized alien residents, by region of origin, 1986 and 2002
SOURCE: Ruth Ellen Wasem, "Figure. 2. Unauthorized Alien Residents by Region of Origin: 1986 and 2002," in Unauthorized Aliens in the United States: Estimates since 1986, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, September 15, 2004, http://www.immigrationforum.org/documents/crs/CRS_undocumented_2004.pdf (accessed March 7, 2005) also noted that many employers of illegal aliens resorted to unrecorded revenue receipts (paying "under the table" or "off the books" by cash). Justich and Ng estimated five million illegal workers were being paid on such an untaxed cash basis. They argued that this "stealth workforce" distorted economic statistics and government budget projections by understating job growth, inflating U.S. productivity, and shortchanging tax revenues by some $35 billion per year.

Counting Who Comes and Goes

Section 110 of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (IIRIRA; PL 104-208) mandated that the INS develop an automated system to track the entry and exit of all noncitizens—nonimmigrants and immigrant residents entering or leaving all ports of entry, including land borders and sea ports. The INS, the Canadian government, and the airline industry, among others, opposed Section 110. According to the INS, it lacked the resources to put in place such an integrated system. The Canadian government claimed that filling out the entry form (Form I-94) and having it checked by INS inspectors would cause large backups at the border. Airlines considered Section 110 an additional reporting burden.

On June 15, 2000, Congress passed the Immigration and Naturalization Service Data Management Improvement Act (PL 106-215) to amend Section 110 of the IIRIRA. It required the INS to develop an electronic system that "provides access to, and integrates, alien arrival and departure data," using available data to identify lawfully admitted nonimmigrants who might have overstayed their visits. A deadline of December 31, 2003, was set for all airports and seaports to have the system in place. Fifty land border ports, determined by the U.S. attorney general to have the highest number of arrivals and departures, were given until December 31, 2004, to have the system operating. All remaining land ports of entry were to have the system operating by December 31, 2005.