A Gallup poll entitled "Americans Have Mixed Opinions about Immigration" (Jeffrey M. Jones, Washington, DC: The Gallup Organization, June 19, 2001), found that 42% of the American public supported keeping immigration at the current level, while 41% wanted to lower the number of admissions. One month after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, a joint CNN/Gallup/ USA Today poll found that the percentage of Americans in favor of decreased immigration levels rose to 58% ("Opinions on Immigration," October 21, 2001). By June 2003 attitudes toward immigration were somewhat less negative, with 47% in favor of reduced immigration and 37% in favor of maintaining the current level ("Nearly Half of Americans Say Immigration Levels Should Be Decreased," The Gallup Organization, July 10, 2003). As of January 2005, however, attitudes had again shifted. Fifty-two percent of respondents surveyed in a Gallup poll favored reduced levels of immigration in America ("Most Americans Say Immigration Should Be Decreased," January 5, 2005).
Some Americans felt threatened by immigrants who they believed were unable or unwilling to assimilate into American culture. Others felt that just as previous waves of immigrants had added richness and a distinctive quality to American life, future influxes of foreign-born people would contribute more than just their numbers to American society. In the aforementioned June 2001 poll, the Gallup Organization asked Americans about the impact of immigration on society. Nearly half of respondents thought immigration made taxes and crime worse while more than half believed that food, music, and the arts were improved by immigrants.
In Elite vs. Public Opinion: An Examination of Divergent Views on Immigration (Washington, DC: Center for Immigration Studies, December 2002), Roy Beck and Steven A. Camarota examined the results of a national poll conducted from May through July 2002 by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. The authors contended that the poll results showed a wide gap between the opinions of the American public toward immigration and the opinions of American policymakers. This poll found that 60% of the public considered current immigration levels to be a "critical threat to the vital interests of the United States," while only 14% of the nation's leadership believed this to be true. More than half (55%) of the public believed current immigration levels should be reduced, compared with only 18% of "opinion leaders." The public ranked illegal immigration as the biggest foreign policy problem facing the nation, while the nation's leadership ranked it 26th in importance. According to the authors, "[t]he very large difference between elite and public opinion explains the current political stalemate on immigration. For example, supporters of an amnesty for illegal immigrants have broad elite support ranging from religious to business and union leaders. Normally elite support of this kind would lead to policy changes, but on this issue public opposition is so strong that it creates a political stalemate."
The Debate over Amnesty and Guest Worker Programs
David Simcox reported in Measuring the Fallout: The Cost of the IRCA Amnesty after 10 Years (Washington, DC: Center for Immigration Studies, 1997) that ten years after IRCA legalization, the illegal aliens who had received amnesties had cost the government a total of $102.1 billion in terms of twenty public assistance programs. During the same period, the amnestied illegal aliens paid taxes of only $78 billion. In addition, Simcox estimated indirect costs related to the legalized population at $54.6 billion—$9.9 billion for aid to displaced native workers, $36.1 billion in aid to American-born children of legalized women, and $8.6 billion in public education costs for the undocumented children of legalized aliens.
After his election in 2000, President George W. Bush proposed a guest worker program that would provide illegal immigrants in the United States with an opportunity to register for available jobs and move gradually toward permanent resident status. According to the president, the term "amnesty" did not apply to the program he had in mind.
In August 2001, shortly before Mexico's President Vicente Fox became the first official state visitor to the Bush White House, ABCNews.com conducted a random sample survey in which 43% of adults said they would support a plan "in which illegal immigrants from Mexico would be allowed to live and work legally in the United States" ("Border Lines Poll Shows Public Opinion Split On Residency for Mexican Illegals," August 29, 2001). Almost half (49%) of respondents said they would oppose such a plan. Despite the president's arguments, many people saw his proposal as amnesty disguised by another label.
Guest workers took a backseat to greater security issues following the terrorist attacks of September 2001. However, the idea did not disappear. In another ABCNews.com poll taken between January 7 and 11, 2004 ("Most Oppose Bush Immigration Plan," January 12, 2004), 52% of Americans opposed any program "in which illegal immigrants from Mexico should be allowed to live and work legally in the United States." Yet, in his January 20, 2004, State of the Union address, President Bush proposed a new temporary worker program:
Tonight I also ask you to reform our immigration laws, so they reflect our values and benefit our economy. FIGURE 7.12
Priorities for Congress and the President in 2005
SOURCE: Joseph Carroll, "How Important ls It to You that the President and Congress Deal with Each of the Following Issues?" in Terrorism, Iraq Still Top Priorities for Americans, The Gallup Organization, February 10, 2005, http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/defaultaspx?ci=14884&pg=2 (accessed April 6, 2005). Copyright © 2005 by The Gallup Organization. Reproduced by permission of The Gallup Organization. I propose a new temporary worker program to match willing foreign workers with willing employers, when no Americans can be found to fill the job.… I oppose amnesty, because it would encourage further illegal immigration, and unfairly reward those who break our laws. My temporary worker program will preserve the citizenship path for those who respect the law, while bringing millions of hardworking men and women out from the shadows of American life.
GUEST WORKER PROGRAM LACKED PUBLIC SUPPORT.
While immigration was high on the president's priority list, it was less important overall to the majority of Americans. In a December 2004 poll by the Gallup organization ("Terrorism, Iraq Still Top Priorities for Americans"), immigration was not among the issues Americans considered to be "extremely important." (See Figure 7.12.) Less than 3 in 10 Americans listed immigration as a priority issue for Congress and the president in 2005.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll reported in January 2005 that 56% of those surveyed disapproved of President Bush's handling of immigration issues ("Presidential Peril? Bush's Popularity Is Narrowly Based; Democrats Match Him in Public Trust," Washington Post, January 19, 2005). Many people viewed his proposal to allow undocumented workers already in the United States to become legally recognized temporary workers as an amnesty program.
In his February 2, 2005, State of the Union speech, President Bush reiterated his intention to propose a guest worker program. He said, "it is time for an immigration policy that permits temporary guest workers to fill jobs Americans will not take, that rejects amnesty, that tells us who is entering and leaving our country, and that closes the border to drug dealers and terrorists."
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