TABLE 10.2 Projected population by age and sex, selected years 2000–50
| TABLE 10.2 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected population by age and sex, selected years 2000–50 | ||||||
| [In thousands except as indicated. As of July 1. Resident population.] | ||||||
| Population or percent, sex, and age | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
| SOURCE: "Table 2a. Projected Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 2000 to 2050," in U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. Census Bureau, March 18, 2004, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/natprojtab02a.pdf (accessed November 8, 2005) | ||||||
| Population | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Total | 282,125 | 308,936 | 335,805 | 363,584 | 391,946 | 419,854 |
| 0-4 | 19,218 | 21,426 | 22,932 | 24,272 | 26,299 | 28,080 |
| 5-19 | 61,331 | 61,810 | 65,955 | 70,832 | 75,326 | 81,067 |
| 20-44 | 104,075 | 104,444 | 108,632 | 114,747 | 121,659 | 130,897 |
| 45-64 | 62,440 | 81,012 | 83,653 | 82,280 | 88,611 | 93,104 |
| 65-84 | 30,794 | 34,120 | 47,363 | 61,850 | 64,640 | 65,844 |
| 85+ | 4,267 | 6,123 | 7,269 | 9,603 | 15,409 | 20,861 |
| Male | ||||||
| Total | 138,411 | 151,815 | 165,093 | 178,563 | 192,405 | 206,477 |
| 0-4 | 9,831 | 10,947 | 11,716 | 12,399 | 13,437 | 14,348 |
| 5-19 | 31,454 | 31,622 | 33,704 | 36,199 | 38,496 | 41,435 |
| 20-44 | 52,294 | 52,732 | 54,966 | 58,000 | 61,450 | 66,152 |
| 45-64 | 30,381 | 39,502 | 40,966 | 40,622 | 43,961 | 46,214 |
| 65-84 | 13,212 | 15,069 | 21,337 | 28,003 | 29,488 | 30,579 |
| 85+ | 1,240 | 1,942 | 2,403 | 3,340 | 5,573 | 7,749 |
| Female | ||||||
| Total | 143,713 | 157,121 | 170,711 | 185,022 | 199,540 | 213,377 |
| 0-4 | 9,387 | 10,479 | 11,216 | 11,873 | 12,863 | 13,732 |
| 5-19 | 29,877 | 30,187 | 32,251 | 34,633 | 36,831 | 39,632 |
| 20-44 | 51,781 | 51,711 | 53,666 | 56,747 | 60,209 | 64,745 |
| 45-64 | 32,059 | 41,510 | 42,687 | 41,658 | 44,650 | 46,891 |
| 65-84 | 17,582 | 19,051 | 26,026 | 33,848 | 35,152 | 35,265 |
| 85+ | 3,028 | 4,182 | 4,866 | 6,263 | 9,836 | 13,112 |
| Percent of total | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 0-4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| 5-19 | 21.7 | 20.0 | 19.6 | 19.5 | 19.2 | 19.3 |
| 20-44 | 36.9 | 33.8 | 32.3 | 31.6 | 31.0 | 31.2 |
| 45-64 | 22.1 | 26.2 | 24.9 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.2 |
| 65-84 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 14.1 | 17.0 | 16.5 | 15.7 |
| 85+ | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 |
| Male | ||||||
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 0-4 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| 5-19 | 22.7 | 20.8 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.0 | 20.1 |
| 20-44 | 37.8 | 34.7 | 33.3 | 32.5 | 31.9 | 32.0 |
| 45-64 | 21.9 | 26.0 | 24.8 | 22.7 | 22.8 | 22.4 |
| 65-84 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 15.7 | 15.3 | 14.8 |
| 85+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Female | ||||||
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 0-4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| 5-19 | 20.8 | 19.2 | 18.9 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 18.6 |
| 20-44 | 36.0 | 32.9 | 31.4 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 30.3 |
| 45-64 | 22.3 | 26.4 | 25.0 | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.0 |
| 65-84 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 18.3 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
| 85+ | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
oneself, personality change, emotional instability, and loss of a sense of time or place.
Dementia has become a serious health problem in developed countries, including the United States, because older adults are living even longer. In 2000 the Federal Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics estimated that approximately 10% of those older than age sixty-five, 20% of those older than age seventy-five, and nearly 36% of those over age eighty-five suffer from dementia.
Alzheimer's Disease
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the single most common cause of dementia. It is a progressive, degenerative disease that attacks the brain and results in severely impaired memory, thinking, and behavior. First described in 1906 by the German neuropathologist Alois Alzheimer, the disorder may strike people in their forties and fifties, but most victims are over age sixty-five.
TABLE 10.3 Leading causes of death and numbers of deaths, by age, 1980 and 2002
| TABLE 10.3 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading causes of death and numbers of deaths, by age, 1980 and 2002 | ||||
| [Data are based on death certificates] | ||||
| Age and rank order | 1980 | 2002 | ||
| Cause of death | Deaths | Cause of death | Deaths | |
| Under 1 year | ||||
| … | All causes | 45,526 | All causes | 28,034 |
| 1 | Congenital anomalies | 9,220 | Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities | 5,623 |
| 2 | Sudden infant death syndrome | 5,510 | Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight, not elsewhere classified | 4,637 |
| 3 | Respiratory distress syndrome | 4,989 | Sudden infant death syndrome | 2,295 |
| 4 | Disorders relating to short gestation and unspecified low birthweight | 3,648 | Newborn affected by maternal complications of pregnancy | 1,708 |
| 5 | Newborn affected by maternal complications of pregnancy | 1,572 | Newborn affected by complications of placenta, cord and membranes | 1,028 |
| 6 | Intrauterine hypoxia and birth asphyxia | 1,497 | Unintentional injuries | 946 |
| 7 | Unintentional injuries | 1,166 | Respiratory distress of newborn | 943 |
| 8 | Birth trauma | 1,058 | Bacterial sepsis of newborn | 749 |
| 9 | Pneumonia and influenza | 1,012 | Diseases of circulatory system | 667 |
| 10 | Newborn affected by complications of placenta, cord, and membranes | 985 | Intrauterine hypoxia and birth asphyxia | 583 |
| 1-4 years | ||||
| … | All causes | 8,187 | All causes | 4,858 |
| 1 | Unintentional injuries | 3,313 | Unintentional injuries | 1,641 |
| 2 | Congenital anomalies | 1,026 | Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities | 530 |
| 3 | Malignant neoplasms | 573 | Homicide | 423 |
| 4 | Diseases of heart | 338 | Malignant neoplasms | 402 |
| 5 | Homicide | 319 | Diseases of heart | 165 |
| 6 | Pneumonia and influenza | 267 | Influenza and pneumonia | 110 |
| 7 | Meningitis | 223 | Septicemia | 79 |
| 8 | Meningococcal infection | 110 | Chronic lower respiratory diseases | 65 |
| 8 | … | … | Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period | 65 |
| 9 | Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period | 84 | … | … |
| 10 | Septicemia | 71 | In situ neoplasms, benign neoplasms and neoplasms of uncertain or unknown behavior | 60 |
| 5-14 years | ||||
| … | All causes | 10,689 | All causes | 7,150 |
| 1 | Unintentional injuries | 5,224 | Unintentional injuries | 2,718 |
| 2 | Malignant neoplasms | 1,497 | Malignant neoplasms | 1,072 |
| 3 | Congenital anomalies | 561 | Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities | 417 |
| 4 | Homicide | 415 | Homicide | 356 |
| 5 | Diseases of heart | 330 | Suicide | 264 |
| 6 | Pneumonia and influenza | 194 | Diseases of heart | 255 |
| 7 | Suicide | 142 | Chronic lower respiratory diseases | 136 |
| 8 | Benign neoplasms | 104 | Septicemia | 95 |
| 9 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 95 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 91 |
| 9 | … | … | Influenza and pneumonia | 91 |
| 10 | Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases | 85 | … | … |
Dr. Alzheimer's autopsy of a severely demented fifty-five-year-old woman revealed deposits of "neuritic plaques" and "neurofibrillary tangles." The latter characteristic, the presence of twisted and tangled fibers in the brain cells, is the anatomical hallmark of the disease.
SYMPTOMS
AD has been described as "a dementia of gradual onset and progressive decline." Mild or early AD is not easily distinguishable from the characteristics of normal aging—mild episodes of forgetfulness and disorientation. Gradually, the AD patient may experience confusion; language problems, such as trouble finding words; impaired judgment; disorientation in place and time; and changes in mood, behavior, and personality. The speed with which these changes occur varies, but eventually the disease leaves patients unable to care for themselves.
In the terminal stages of AD, patients require care twenty-four hours a day. They no longer recognize family members or themselves and need help with simple daily activities, such as eating, dressing, bathing, and using the
TABLE 10.3 Leading causes of death and numbers of deaths, by age, 1980 and 2002 [CONTINUED]
| TABLE 10.3 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading causes of death and numbers of deaths, by age, 1980 and 2002 [CONTINUED] | ||||
| [Data are based on death certificates] | ||||
| Age and rank order | 1980 | 2002 | ||
| Cause of death | Deaths | Cause of death | Deaths | |
| Note: "…"=Category not applicable. | ||||
| SOURCE: "Table 32. Leading Causes of Death and Numbers of Deaths, according to Age: United States, 1980 and 2002," in Health, United States, 2005, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, November 2005, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus05.pdf (accessed February 27, 2006) | ||||
| 15-24 years | ||||
| … | All causes | 49,027 | All causes | 33,046 |
| 1 | Unintentional injuries | 26,206 | Unintentional injuries | 15,412 |
| 2 | Homicide | 6,537 | Homicide | 5,219 |
| 3 | Suicide | 5,239 | Suicide | 4,010 |
| 4 | Malignant neoplasms | 2,683 | Malignant neoplasms | 1,730 |
| 5 | Diseases of heart | 1,223 | Diseases of heart | 1,022 |
| 6 | Congenital anomalies | 600 | Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities | 492 |
| 7 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 418 | Chronic lower respiratory diseases | 192 |
| 8 | Pneumonia and influenza | 348 | Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease | 178 |
| 9 | Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases diseases | Diabetes mellitus | 171 | |
| 141 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 171 | ||
| 9 | … | … | … | … |
| 10 | Anemias | 133 | ||
| 25-44 years | ||||
| … | All causes | 108,658 | All causes | 132,495 |
| 1 | Unintentional injuries | 26,722 | Unintentional injuries | 29,279 |
| 2 | Malignant neoplasms | 17,551 | Malignant neoplasms | 19,957 |
| 3 | Diseases of heart | 14,513 | Diseases of heart | 16,853 |
| 4 | Homicide | 10,983 | Suicide | 11,897 |
| 5 | Suicide | 9,855 | Homicide | 7,728 |
| 6 | Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis | 4,782 | Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease | 7,546 |
| 7 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 3,154 | Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis | 3,528 |
| 8 | Diabetes mellitus | 1,472 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 2,992 |
| 9 | Pneumonia and influenza | 1,467 | Diabetes mellitus | 2,806 |
| 10 | Congenital anomalies | 817 | Influenza and pneumonia | 1,316 |
| 45-64 years | ||||
| … | All causes | 425,338 | All causes | 425,727 |
| 1 | Diseases of heart | 148,322 | Malignant neoplasms | 143,028 |
| 2 | Malignant neoplasms | 135,675 | Diseases of heart | 101,804 |
| 3 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 19,909 | Unintentional injuries | 23,020 |
| 4 | Unintentional injuries | 18,140 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 15,952 |
| 5 | Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis | 16,089 | Diabetes mellitus | 15,518 |
| 6 | Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases | 11,514 | Chronic lower respiratory diseases | 14,755 |
| 7 | Diabetes mellitus | 7,977 | Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis | 13,313 |
| 8 | Suicide | 7,079 | Suicide | 9,926 |
| 9 | Pneumonia and influenza | 5,804 | Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease | 5,821 |
| 10 | Homicide | 4,019 | Septicemia | 5,434 |
| 65 years and over | ||||
| … | All causes | 1,341,848 | All causes | 1,811,720 |
| 1 | Diseases of heart | 595,406 | Diseases of heart | 576,301 |
| 2 | Malignant neoplasms | 258,389 | Malignant neoplasms | 391,001 |
| 3 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 146,417 | Cerebrovascular diseases | 143,293 |
| 4 | Pneumonia and influenza | 45,512 | Chronic lower respiratory diseases | 108,313 |
| 5 | Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases | 43,587 | Influenza and pneumonia | 58,826 |
| 6 | Atherosclerosis | 28,081 | Alzheimer's disease | 58,289 |
| 7 | Diabetes mellitus | 25,216 | Diabetes mellitus | 54,715 |
| 8 | Unintentional injuries | 24,844 | Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis | 34,316 |
| 9 | Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis | 12,968 | Unintentional injuries | 33,641 |
| 10 | Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis | 9,519 | Septicemia | 26,670 |
TABLE 10.4 Death rates for diseases of the heart, by sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, selected years 1950–2002
| TABLE 10.4 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Death rates for diseases of the heart, by sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, selected years 1950–2002 | ||||||||
| [Data are based on death certificates] | ||||||||
| Sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age | 1950a | 1960a | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 |
| All persons | Deaths per 100,000 resident population | |||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | 586.8 | 559.0 | 492.7 | 412.1 | 321.8 | 257.6 | 247.8 | 240.8 |
| All ages, crude | 355.5 | 369.0 | 362.0 | 336.0 | 289.5 | 252.6 | 245.8 | 241.7 |
| Under 1 year | 3.5 | 6.6 | 13.1 | 22.8 | 20.1 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 12.4 |
| 1-4 years | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5-14 years | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 15-24 years | 6.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 25-34 years | 19.4 | 15.6 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| 35-44 years | 86.4 | 74.6 | 66.7 | 44.6 | 31.4 | 29.2 | 29.6 | 30.5 |
| 45-54 years | 308.6 | 271.8 | 238.4 | 180.2 | 120.5 | 94.2 | 92.9 | 93.7 |
| 55-64 years | 808.1 | 737.9 | 652.3 | 494.1 | 367.3 | 261.2 | 246.9 | 241.5 |
| 65-74 years | 1,839.8 | 1,740.5 | 1,558.2 | 1,218.6 | 894.3 | 665.6 | 635.1 | 615.9 |
| 75-84 years | 4,310.1 | 4,089.4 | 3,683.8 | 2,993.1 | 2,295.7 | 1,780.3 | 1,725.7 | 1,677.2 |
| 85 years and over | 9,150.6 | 9,317.8 | 7,891.3 | 7,777.1 | 6,739.9 | 5,926.1 | 5,664.2 | 5,446.8 |
| Male | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | 697.0 | 687.6 | 634.0 | 538.9 | 412.4 | 320.0 | 305.4 | 297.4 |
| All ages, crude | 423.4 | 439.5 | 422.5 | 368.6 | 297.6 | 249.8 | 242.5 | 240.7 |
| Under 1 year | 4.0 | 7.8 | 15.1 | 25.5 | 21.9 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 12.9 |
| 1-4 years | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5-14 years | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 15-24 years | 6.8 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| 25-34 years | 22.9 | 20.1 | 15.2 | 11.4 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| 35-44 years | 118.4 | 112.7 | 103.2 | 68.7 | 48.1 | 41.4 | 41.7 | 43.1 |
| 45-54 years | 440.5 | 420.4 | 376.4 | 282.6 | 183.0 | 140.2 | 136.6 | 138.4 |
| 55-64 years | 1,104.5 | 1,066.9 | 987.2 | 746.8 | 537.3 | 371.7 | 349.8 | 343.4 |
| 65-74 years | 2,292.3 | 2,291.3 | 2,170.3 | 1,728.0 | 1,250.0 | 898.3 | 851.3 | 827.1 |
| 75-84 years | 4,825.0 | 4,742.4 | 4,534.8 | 3,834.3 | 2,968.2 | 2,248.1 | 2,177.3 | 2,110.1 |
| 85 years and over | 9,659.8 | 9,788.9 | 8,426.2 | 8,752.7 | 7,418.4 | 6,430.0 | 6,040.5 | 5,823.5 |
| Female | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | 484.7 | 447.0 | 381.6 | 320.8 | 257.0 | 210.9 | 203.9 | 197.2 |
| All ages, crude | 288.4 | 300.6 | 304.5 | 305.1 | 281.8 | 255.3 | 249.0 | 242.7 |
| Under 1 year | 2.9 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 20.0 | 18.3 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| 1-4 years | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5-14 years | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 15-24 years | 6.7 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 25-34 years | 16.2 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| 35-44 years | 55.1 | 38.2 | 32.2 | 21.4 | 15.1 | 17.2 | 17.6 | 18.0 |
| 45-54 years | 177.2 | 127.5 | 109.9 | 84.5 | 61.0 | 49.8 | 50.7 | 50.6 |
| 55-64 years | 510.0 | 429.4 | 351.6 | 272.1 | 215.7 | 159.3 | 151.8 | 147.2 |
| 65-74 years | 1,419.3 | 1,261.3 | 1,082.7 | 828.6 | 616.8 | 474.0 | 455.9 | 440.1 |
| 75-84 years | 3,872.0 | 3,582.7 | 3,120.8 | 2,497.0 | 1,893.8 | 1,475.1 | 1,428.9 | 1,389.7 |
| 85 years and over | 8,796.1 | 9,016.8 | 7,591.8 | 7,350.5 | 6,478.1 | 5,720.9 | 5,506.8 | 5,283.3 |
| White malec | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | 700.2 | 694.5 | 640.2 | 539.6 | 409.2 | 316.7 | 301.8 | 294.1 |
| All ages, crude | 433.0 | 454.6 | 438.3 | 384.0 | 312.7 | 265.8 | 257.8 | 256.0 |
| 45-54 years | 423.6 | 413.2 | 365.7 | 269.8 | 170.6 | 130.7 | 127.0 | 128.6 |
| 55-64 years | 1,081.7 | 1,056.0 | 979.3 | 730.6 | 516.7 | 351.8 | 330.8 | 324.0 |
| 65-74 years | 2,308.3 | 2,297.9 | 2,177.2 | 1,729.7 | 1,230.5 | 877.8 | 829.1 | 807.8 |
| 75-84 years | 4,907.3 | 4,839.9 | 4,617.6 | 3,883.2 | 2,983.4 | 2,247.0 | 2,175.8 | 2,112.0 |
| 85 years and over | 9,950.5 | 10,135.8 | 8,818.0 | 8,958.0 | 7,558.7 | 6,560.8 | 6,157.2 | 5,939.8 |
| Black or African American malec | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | 639.4 | 615.2 | 607.3 | 561.4 | 485.4 | 392.5 | 384.5 | 371.0 |
| All ages, crude | 346.2 | 330.6 | 330.3 | 301.0 | 256.8 | 211.1 | 209.0 | 206.3 |
| 45-54 years | 622.5 | 514.0 | 512.8 | 433.4 | 328.9 | 247.2 | 242.6 | 246.0 |
| 55-64 years | 1,433.1 | 1,236.8 | 1,135.4 | 987.2 | 824.0 | 631.2 | 602.2 | 605.3 |
| 65-74 years | 2,139.1 | 2,281.4 | 2,237.8 | 1,847.2 | 1,632.9 | 1,268.8 | 1,245.8 | 1,192.7 |
| 75-84 yearsd | 4,106.1 | 3,533.6 | 3,783.4 | 3,578.8 | 3,107.1 | 2,597.6 | 2,569.3 | 2,449.6 |
| 85 years and over | — | 6,037.9 | 5,367.6 | 6,819.5 | 6,479.6 | 5,633.5 | 5,459.9 | 5,125.7 |
toilet. Eventually, they may become incontinent, blind, and unable to communicate. The course of the disease varies widely—some patients die within a few years of diagnosis, while others have lived as long as twenty-five years.
PREVALENCE
In 2002, 58,289 deaths from AD were reported for those age sixty-five and older. (See Table 10.3.) Liesi E. Hebert et al reported in "Alzheimer Disease in the U.S. Population: Prevalence Estimates Using the 2000 Census" (Archives of Neurology, vol. 60,
TABLE 10.4 Death rates for diseases of the heart, by sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, selected years 1950–2002 [CONTINUED]
| TABLE 10.4 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Death rates for diseases of the heart, by sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, selected years 1950–2002 [CONTINUED] | ||||||||
| [Data are based on death certificates] | ||||||||
| Sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age | 1950a | 1960a | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 |
| American Indian or Alaska Native malec | Deaths per 100,000 resident population | |||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | 320.5 | 264.1 | 222.2 | 200.7 | 201.2 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | 130.6 | 108.0 | 90.1 | 89.1 | 92.0 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | 238.1 | 173.8 | 108.5 | 109.1 | 104.2 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | 496.3 | 411.0 | 285.0 | 301.1 | 273.2 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | 1,009.4 | 839.1 | 748.2 | 682.1 | 638.4 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | 2,062.2 | 1,788.8 | 1,655.7 | 1,384.5 | 1,422.7 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | 4,413.7 | 3,860.3 | 3,318.3 | 2,895.7 | 3,162.4 |
| Asian or Pacific Islander malec | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | 286.9 | 220.7 | 185.5 | 169.8 | 169.8 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | 119.8 | 88.7 | 90.6 | 87.3 | 89.4 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | 112.0 | 70.4 | 61.1 | 60.1 | 60.6 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | 306.7 | 226.1 | 182.6 | 162.0 | 154.2 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | 852.4 | 623.5 | 482.5 | 439.1 | 422.4 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | 2,010.9 | 1,642.2 | 1,354.7 | 1,273.8 | 1,252.4 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | 5,923.0 | 4,617.8 | 4,154.2 | 3,688.1 | 3,841.3 |
| Hispanic or Latino malec, e | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | — | 270.0 | 238.2 | 232.6 | 219.8 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | — | 91.0 | 74.7 | 74.6 | 74.0 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | — | 116.4 | 84.3 | 82.9 | 80.5 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | — | 363.0 | 264.8 | 242.2 | 256.0 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | — | 829.9 | 684.8 | 683.7 | 657.7 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | — | 1,971.3 | 1,733.2 | 1,702.7 | 1,599.5 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | — | 4,711.9 | 4,897.5 | 4,784.3 | 4,301.8 |
| White, not Hispanic or Latino malee | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | — | 413.6 | 319.9 | 304.8 | 297.7 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | — | 336.5 | 297.5 | 289.5 | 289.2 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | — | 172.8 | 134.3 | 130.7 | 133.1 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | — | 521.3 | 356.3 | 335.8 | 327.6 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | — | 1,243.4 | 885.1 | 834.7 | 813.5 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | — | 3,007.7 | 2,261.9 | 2,190.4 | 2,129.9 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | — | 7,663.4 | 6,606.6 | 6,195.4 | 5,994.1 |
| White femalec | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | 478.0 | 441.7 | 376.7 | 315.9 | 250.9 | 205.6 | 198.7 | 192.1 |
| All ages, crude | 289.4 | 306.5 | 313.8 | 319.2 | 298.4 | 274.5 | 267.7 | 261.0 |
| 45-54 years | 141.9 | 103.4 | 91.4 | 71.2 | 50.2 | 40.9 | 41.5 | 41.7 |
| 55-64 years | 460.2 | 383.0 | 317.7 | 248.1 | 192.4 | 141.3 | 134.3 | 130.6 |
| 65-74 years | 1,400.9 | 1,229.8 | 1,044.0 | 796.7 | 583.6 | 445.2 | 429.0 | 414.7 |
| 75-84 years | 3,925.2 | 3,629.7 | 3,143.5 | 2,493.6 | 1,874.3 | 1,452.4 | 1,407.9 | 1,368.2 |
| 85 years and over | 9,084.7 | 9,280.8 | 7,839.9 | 7,501.6 | 6,563.4 | 5,801.4 | 5,582.5 | 5,350.6 |
| Black or African American femalec | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | 536.9 | 488.9 | 435.6 | 378.6 | 327.5 | 277.6 | 269.8 | 263.2 |
| All ages, crude | 287.6 | 268.5 | 261.0 | 249.7 | 237.0 | 212.6 | 208.6 | 205.0 |
| 45-54 years | 525.3 | 360.7 | 290.9 | 202.4 | 155.3 | 125.0 | 125.9 | 124.9 |
| 55-64 years | 1,210.2 | 952.3 | 710.5 | 530.1 | 442.0 | 332.8 | 323.1 | 312.3 |
| 65-74 years | 1,659.4 | 1,680.5 | 1,553.2 | 1,210.3 | 1,017.5 | 815.2 | 768.0 | 734.0 |
| 75-84 yearsd | 3,499.3 | 2,926.9 | 2,964.1 | 2,707.2 | 2,250.9 | 1,913.1 | 1,849.6 | 1,821.9 |
| 85 years and over | — | 5,650.0 | 5,003.8 | 5,796.5 | 5,766.1 | 5,298.7 | 5,207.3 | 5,111.2 |
no. 8, August 2003) that the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease and the proportion of severe disease increased dramatically with age after age sixty-five. (See Figure 10.1.) While AD can strike as early as the third, fourth, or fifth decade of life, 90% of victims are older than age sixty-five when it becomes apparent.
Hebert and colleagues also noted that the number of people with AD in the U.S. population and their age distribution will change substantially by the mid-twenty-first century. In 2000, 4.5 million people age sixty-five and older were living with AD. By the year 2050 between 11.3 and 16 million people of this age group are expected to be affected with the disease. (See Table 10.8.)
Hebert and colleagues have also determined the percentage change in numbers of people affected by AD expected between 2000 and 2025 in each state (L. E. Hebert et al, "State-Specific Projections through 2025 of Alzheimer Disease Prevalence," Neurology, vol. 62, no. 9, May 2004). The ten states predicted to have the highest numbers of people with AD in 2025—California, Florida, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina, Michigan, and New
TABLE 10.4 Death rates for diseases of the heart, by sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, selected years 1950–2002 [CONTINUED]
| TABLE 10.4 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Death rates for diseases of the heart, by sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, selected years 1950–2002 [CONTINUED] | ||||||||
| [Data are based on death certificates] | ||||||||
| Sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age | 1950a | 1960a | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 |
| aIncludes deaths of persons who were not residents of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. | ||||||||
| bAge-adjusted rates are calculated using the year 2000 standard population. | ||||||||
| cThe race groups, white, black, Asian or Pacific Islander, and American Indian or Alaska Native, include persons of Hispanic and non-Hispanic origin. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Death rates for the American Indian or Alaska Native and Asian or Pacific Islander populations are known to be underestimated. | ||||||||
| dIn 1950 rate is for the age group 75 years and over. | ||||||||
| ePrior to 1997, excludes data from states lacking an Hispanic-origin item on the death certificate. | ||||||||
| Notes: "—"=Data not available. Starting with 2003, rates for 1991–99 were revised using intercensal population estimates based on census 2000. Rates for 2000 were revised based on census 2000 counts. Rates for 2001 and 2002 were computed using 2000-based postcensal estimates. Age groups were selected to minimize the presentation of unstable age-specific death rates based on small numbers of deaths and for consistency among comparison groups. | ||||||||
| SOURCE: "Table 36. Death Rates for Diseases of Heart, according to Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Age: United States, Selected Years 1950–2002," in Health, United States, 2005, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, November 2005, http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus05.pdf (accessed February 27, 2006) | ||||||||
| American Indian or Alaska Native femalec | Deaths per 100,000 resident population | |||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | 175.4 | 153.1 | 143.6 | 127.0 | 123.6 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | 80.3 | 77.5 | 71.9 | 68.2 | 68.5 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | 65.2 | 62.0 | 40.2 | 42.7 | 29.7 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | 193.5 | 197.0 | 149.4 | 126.5 | 124.3 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | 577.2 | 492.8 | 391.8 | 384.2 | 365.8 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | 1,364.3 | 1,050.3 | 1,044.1 | 934.3 | 1,002.5 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | 2,893.3 | 2,868.7 | 3,146.3 | 2,510.3 | 2,372.5 |
| Asian or Pacific Islander femalec | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | 132.3 | 149.2 | 115.7 | 112.9 | 108.1 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | 57.0 | 62.0 | 65.0 | 67.9 | 67.4 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | 28.6 | 17.5 | 15.9 | 18.4 | 16.4 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | 92.9 | 99.0 | 68.8 | 62.8 | 61.8 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | 313.3 | 323.9 | 229.6 | 241.7 | 239.9 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | 1,053.2 | 1,130.9 | 866.2 | 848.7 | 796.9 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | 3,211.0 | 4,161.2 | 3,367.2 | 3,186.3 | 3,067.4 |
| Hispanic or Latino femalec, e | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | — | 177.2 | 163.7 | 161.0 | 149.7 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | — | 79.4 | 71.5 | 71.8 | 69.7 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | — | 43.5 | 28.2 | 27.9 | 30.2 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | — | 153.2 | 111.2 | 107.2 | 105.7 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | — | 460.4 | 366.3 | 363.1 | 346.4 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | — | 1,259.7 | 1,169.4 | 1,155.7 | 1,090.8 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | — | 4,440.3 | 4,605.8 | 4,521.1 | 4,032.8 |
| White, not Hispanic or Latino femalee | ||||||||
| All ages, age adjustedb | — | — | — | — | 252.6 | 206.8 | 200.0 | 193.7 |
| All ages, crude | — | — | — | — | 320.0 | 304.9 | 298.4 | 292.3 |
| 45-54 years | — | — | — | — | 50.2 | 41.9 | 42.7 | 42.6 |
| 55-64 years | — | — | — | — | 193.6 | 142.9 | 136.0 | 132.0 |
| 65-74 years | — | — | — | — | 584.7 | 448.5 | 431.8 | 417.4 |
| 75-84 years | — | — | — | — | 1,890.2 | 1,458.9 | 1,414.7 | 1,377.2 |
| 85 years and over | — | — | — | — | 6,615.2 | 5,822.7 | 5,601.6 | 5,384.5 |
Jersey—are the same ten that had the largest numbers in 2000.
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