Labor Force Participation - Projections For 2010

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projected that more Hispanics than African-Americans would enter the workforce between 2000 and 2010, causing the group to make up more of the workforce than African-Americans by 2010. The number of African-Americans in the labor force was expected to increase 20.7 percent, and the group would total more than twenty million workers, or 12.7 percent of the workforce. The participation rate among Hispanics was expected to grow 36.3 percent from 2000. They would number 20.9 million workers and were expected to make up 13.3 percent of the labor force in 2010, up from 10.9 percent in 2000. (See Table 3.7.) The growth of Hispanics in the workforce can be attributed to higher birth rates and increased immigration.

The proportion of "Asian and other" (which includes Asians, Pacific Islanders, American Indians, and Alaska Natives) in the labor force was expected to increase 44.1 percent between 2000 and 2010. Even growth of that proportion would still make this group only 6.1 percent of the labor force, up from 4.7 percent in 2000. (See Table 3.7.) As with most other minority groups, increases reflect continued high immigration and higher fertility rates.

TABLE 3.4
Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 25 years and over by educational attainment, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 2001–02
(Numbers in thousands)

	Total		Men		Women		White		Black		Hispanic origin
Educational attainment	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002	2001	2002
Some college, no degree
Civilian noninstitutional population	30,955	30,890	14,531	14,493	16,424	16,397	25,809	25,648	3,880	3,954	2,462	2,498
Civilian labor force	22,238	21,990	11,466	11,346	10,772	10,644	18,257	17,995	3,023	3,055	1,992	2,014
Percent of population	71.8	71.2	78.9	78.3	65.6	64.9	70.7	70.2	77.9	77.2	80.9	80.6
Employed	21,459	20,928	11,076	10,811	10,383	10,117	17,671	17,209	2,871	2,843	1,916	1,900
Employment-population ratio	69.3	67.7	76.2	74.6	63.2	61.7	68.5	67.1	74.0	71.9	77.8	76.1
Unemployed	779	1,062	390	536	390	527	586	786	153	212	76	114
Unemployment rate	3.5	4.8	3.4	4.7	3.6	4.9	3.2	4.4	5.1	6.9	3.8	5.7
Associate degree
Civilian noninstitutional population	14,755	15,078	6,328	6,470	8,427	8,608	12,454	12,701	1,587	1,628	990	1,072
Civilian labor force	11,458	11,626	5,391	5,456	6,067	6,171	9,636	9,790	1,278	1,288	812	866
Percent of population	77.7	77.1	85.2	84.3	72.0	71.7	77.4	77.1	80.6	79.1	82.0	80.8
Employed	11,127	11,166	5,226	5,221	5,901	5,945	9,393	9,440	1,216	1,210	781	823
Employment-population ratio	75.4	74.1	82.6	80.7	70.0	69.1	75.4	74.3	76.6	74.4	78.9	76.8
Unemployed	331	460	165	235	166	226	243	350	62	77	31	43
Unemployment rate	2.9	4.0	3.1	4.3	2.7	3.7	2.5	3.6	4.9	6.0	3.8	4.9
College graduates
Civilian noninstitutional population	47,354	49,017	24,318	24,994	23,036	24,024	40,083	41,508	3,353	3,421	2,162	2,371
Civilian labor force	37,354	38,518	20,508	20,985	16,847	17,533	31,487	32,473	2,803	2,833	1,787	1,973
Percent of population	78.9	78.6	84.3	84.0	73.1	73.0	78.6	78.2	83.6	82.8	82.7	83.2
Employed	36,514	37,395	20,060	20,350	16,453	17,045	30,821	31,597	2,727	2,715	1,723	1,906
Employment-population ratio	77.1	76.3	82.5	81.4	71.4	71.0	76.9	76.1	81.3	79.4	79.7	80.4
Unemployed	841	1,123	447	635	394	488	667	876	76	118	64	67
Unemployment rate	2.3	2.9	2.2	3.0	2.3	2.8	2.1	2.7	2.7	4.2	3.6	3.4
1Includes the categories some college, no degree, and associate degree.
Note: Detail for the above race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals because data for the "other races" group are not presented and Hispanics are included in both the white and black population groups.
SOURCE: "7. Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutional Population 25 Years and over by Educational Attainment, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin," in Employment and Earnings, June 2003, U.S. Department of Labor Statistics, Washington, DC, 2003 [Online] http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsa2002.pdf [accessed March 11, 2004]

The non-Hispanic white labor force was expected to grow more slowly than the overall labor force, causing the white proportion to decrease slightly from 73.1 percent in 2000 to 69.2 percent in 2010. (See Table 3.7.) The decrease is due to a relatively low immigration rate, projected lower birth rates, and declining participation by men, a reflection of the aging of the white male labor force.

TABLE 3.5
Labor force status of the civilian population 16 years and over by sex, and race and Hispanic origin, March 2002

			Race and Hispanic origin1
	Total		Asian or Pacific Islander		Non-Hispanic white		Other
Labor force status and sex	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent
Total2
Total	216,788	100.0	9,636	100.0	155,115	100.0	52,037	100.0
In civilian labor force	144,100	66.5	6,451	66.9	103,023	66.4	34,627	66.5
Not in civilian labor force	72,687	33.5	3,185	33.1	52,092	33.6	17,410	33.5
Male
Total	104,162	100.0	4,635	100.0	74,784	100.0	24,743	100.0
In civilian labor force	76,682	73.6	3,483	75.1	54,929	73.4	18,270	73.8
Not in civilian labor force	27,480	26.4	1,152	24.9	19,855	26.6	6,473	26.2
Female
Total	112,626	100.0	5,001	100.0	80,330	100.0	27,294	100.0
In civilian labor force	67,419	59.9	2,968	59.3	48,094	59.9	16,357	59.9
Not in civilian labor force	45,207	40.1	2,033	40.7	32,237	40.1	10,937	40.1
1Hispanic refers to people whose origin is Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, South or Central American, or other Hispanic/Latino origin, regardless of race.
2Civilian labor force data shown in this report reflect characteristics of the civilian noninstitutionalized population for March 2002 and are not seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE: "Table 9. Labor Force Status of the Civilian Population 16 Years and over by Sex, and Race and Hispanic Origin: March 2002," in Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, April 2003

TABLE 3.6
Employment status of the population 16 years and older in the civilian labor force by sex, and race and Hispanic origin, March 2002

			Race and Hispanic origin1
	Total		Asian or Pacific Islander		Non-Hispanic white		Other
Employment status and sex	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent
Total2
In civilian labor force	144,100	100.0	6,451	100.0	103,023	100.0	34,627	100.0
Employed	135,154	93.8	6,081	94.3	97,772	94.9	31,302	90.4
Unemployed	8,946	6.2	370	5.7	5,251	5.1	3,325	9.6
Male
In civilian labor force	76,682	100.0	3,483	100.0	54,929	100.0	18,270	100.0
Employed	71,505	93.2	3,263	93.7	51,802	94.3	16,440	90.0
Unemployed	5,177	6.8	220	6.3	3,127	5.7	1,830	10.0
Female
In civilian labor force	67,419	100.0	2,968	100.0	48,094	100.0	16,357	100.0
Employed	63,649	94.4	2,818	94.9	45,970	95.6	14,861	90.9
Unemployed	3,770	5.6	150	5.1	2,124	4.4	1,496	9.1
1Hispanic refers to people whose origin is Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, South or Central American, or other Hispanic/Latino origin, regardless of race.
2Civilian labor force data shown in this report reflect characteristics of the civilian noninstitutionalized population for March 2002 and are not seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE: "Table 10. Employment Status of the Population 16 Years and Older in the Civilian Labor Force by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: March 2002," in Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, March 2002

TABLE 3.7
Civilian labor force by selected characteristics, 1980–2000, and projected to 2010
[Numbers in thousands]

	Level				Change			Percent Change			Percent distribution				Annual growth rate (percent)
Group	1980	1990	2000	2010	1980–90	1990–2000	2000–10	1980–90	1990–2000	2000–10	1980	1990	2000	2010	1980–90	1990–2000	2000–10
Total, 16 years and older	106,940	125,840	140,863	157,721	18,900	15,023	16,858	17.7	11.9	12.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	1.6	1.1	1.1
16 to 24	25,300	22,492	22,715	26,081	−2,808	223	3,366	−11.1	1.0	14.8	23.7	17.9	16.1	16.5	−1.2	.1	1.4
25 to 54	66,600	88,322	99,974	104,994	21,722	11,652	5,020	32.6	13.2	5.0	62.3	70.2	71.0	66.6	2.9	1.2	.5
55 and older	15,039	15,026	18,175	26,646	−13	3,149	8,471	−0.1	21.0	46.6	14.1	11.9	12.9	16.9	.0	1.9	.9
Men	61,453	69,011	75,247	82,221	7,558	6,236	6,974	12.3	9.0	9.3	57.5	54.8	53.4	52.1	1.2	.9	.9
Women	45,487	56,829	65,616	75,500	11,342	8,787	9,884	24.9	15.5	15.1	42.5	45.2	46.6	47.9	2.3	1.4	1.4
White	93,600	107,447	117,574	128,043	13,847	10,127	10,470	14.8	9.4	8.9	87.5	85.4	83.5	81.2	1.4	.9	.9
Black	10,865	13,740	16,603	20,041	2,875	2,863	3,439	26.5	20.8	20.7	10.2	10.9	11.8	12.7	2.4	1.9	1.9
Asian and other1	2,476	4,653	6,687	9,636	2,177	2,034	2,950	87.9	43.7	44.1	2.3	3.7	4.7	6.1	6.5	3.7	3.7
Hispanic origin	6,146	10,720	15,368	20,947	4,574	4,648	5,579	74.4	43.4	36.3	5.7	8.5	10.9	13.3	5.7	3.7	3.1
Other than Hispanic origin	100,794	115,120	125,495	136,774	14,326	10,375	11,279	14.2	9.0	9.0	94.3	91.5	89.1	86.7	1.3	.9	.9
White non-Hispanic	87,633	97,818	102,963	109,118	10,185	5,144	6,155	11.6	5.3	6.0	81.9	77.7	73.1	69.2	1.1	.5	.6
1The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" and "white" from the total; projections are made directly, not by subtraction.
SOURCE: Howard N. Fullerton Jr. and Mitra Toossi, "Table 1. Civilian Labor Force by Sex, Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 1980, 1990, 2000, and Projected 2010," in "Labor Force Projections to 2010: Steady Growth and Changing Composition," Monthly Labor Review, vol. 124, no. 11, November 2001